Peace talks in doubt as Iran tensions spike
Plus: News and notes on the reconciliation 2.0, FISA 702 negotiations, Cherfilus-McCormick sanctions proceedings, Virginia redistricting referendum, and Warsh nomination hearing.
👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! It’s Monday morning. Thank you for waking up to Congress Nerd Sunrise. Happy White House Correspondents’ Dinner week—a steady drumbeat of receptions, media events and private convenings across Washington, unfolding alongside a full slate of legislative business on the Hill.
On a far more somber note, I want to repeat what I wrote in Sunset last night: My heart goes out to the people of Shreveport, Louisiana, who are grieving after a horrific mass shooting early Sunday morning that left eight children dead in what authorities describe as an “extensive” domestic violence incident. The suspect, identified by police as Shamar Elkins, was the father of seven of the victims. The children ranged in age from 18 months to 14 years old. Two women remain in critical condition, and a teenager sustained non-life-threatening injuries.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who represents the northwestern Louisiana city, issued a statement expressing heartbreak and offering prayers for the families involved.
📌 New this morning: Peace talks in doubt as Iran tensions spike … News and notes on the reconciliation 2.0, FISA 702 negotiations, Cherfilus-McCormick sanctions proceedings, Virginia redistricting referendum, and Warsh nomination hearing.
📬 Get in touch:michael@onceuponahill.com
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FIRST THINGS FIRST
Peace talks in doubt as Iran tensions spike
Vice President JD Vance is expected to arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan, today alongside Jared Kushner and U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for a second round of peace talks, though Iranian state media said Sunday that Tehran does not plan to participate, citing U.S. demands and the ongoing naval blockade.
The talks come amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has been intermittently disrupted and Iranian vessels have reportedly fired near commercial tankers.
President Donald Trump said U.S. forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that allegedly attempted to bypass the blockade, a claim that would mark a significant escalation.
The White House has vowed to maintain the blockade until a deal is reached, while Iran calls it a violation of a fragile ceasefire and is demanding sanctions relief and access to frozen assets, with major disagreements still centered on Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.
These developments are unfolding as a fragile ceasefire has begun to fray, with clashes around the Strait of Hormuz and both sides accusing the other of violations, following an initial round of negotiations that ended without a breakthrough over sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear program.
A new NBC News poll shows foreign policy is a liability for the president. 68% disapprove of how he’s handling the Iran conflict. And 61% oppose further military action, while the cost of living remains voters’ top economic concern—and his biggest weakness.
“As a direct result of the costly and reckless Republican war of choice, gas prices have skyrocketed, putting more cost pressure on working-class Americans, everyday Americans and middle-class Americans. Enough,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters last Thursday. “Donald Trump and Republicans have failed the American people.”
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LOOKING AHEAD
What else I’m watching
DHS shutdown week 10: The DHS shutdown has entered its tenth week, extending the record for the longest funding lapse in American history. The House GOP still refuses to pass the Senate deal to reopen most of the agency while funding the ICE and CBP through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process.
Senate reconciliation 2.0 budget resolution: The Senate is expected to vote this week on the budget resolution, the essential non-binding framework passed by both houses of Congress that initiates the reconciliation process.
The Senate Budget Committee is expected to skip a markup before it goes to the floor, stripping members of a key step in the process that gives members a chance to debate, amend and formally advance the reconciliation instructions.
“Look, what they’re doing is an end-run around the entire appropriations process because they want to fund Donald Trump’s out-of-control, lawless ICE without any reforms,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a member of the Budget and Appropriations Committees, told me. “They want to give them a complete blank check, even after they shot and killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis.”
While bypassing the markup is unusual, it’s not unheard of and is an acknowledgment of the tight deadline Republican leaders are under to enact a final bill before Trump’s June 1 deadline—seven weeks from today.
A marathon voting session known as a “vote-a-rama” will occur in the Senate before the final passage of the budget resolution. Senators can offer an unlimited number of amendments after the 50 hours of statutory debate time have expired. Each amendment is typically allowed only 30 to 60 seconds of explanation per side, followed by a 10-minute roll call vote.
The session continues until all pending amendments are disposed of or no more are offered, often lasting throughout the night. While most amendments to a resolution are non-binding, they are used by the minority party to force difficult political votes on the record.
FISA 702 negotiations: Congressional Republican leaders have 10 days until another FISA 702 cliff could jeopardize the federal government’s authority to collect foreign intelligence without a warrant.
After the House failed to pass a five-year compromise with modest reforms or a clean 18-month extension early Friday morning, it passed a two-week continuation of the status quo to allow for further negotiations on a long-term solution. The Senate moved quickly to pass the measure hours later.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) acknowledged uncertainty about what the House could deliver and suggested the Senate may need to shape the outcome if the lower chamber remains stuck. This could look like senators drafting or refining the eventual compromise, or at a minimum, setting the terms the House has to react to.
As I reported in Sunday’s Sunset, House Democrats secured a commitment from Republican leadership to release the results of ongoing FISA 702 negotiations at least 72 hours before any floor vote.
SCM Ethics sanctions hearing: The House Ethics Committee will meet on Tuesday to decide what punishment to recommend to the House for Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), who was found guilty by the panel last month of 25 violations centered on allegations she misused roughly $5 million in federal funds tied to her family business, funneled money into her campaign through intermediaries and broke campaign finance and disclosure rules.
The sanctions spectrum is wide and increases with the intent, scale and abuse of office. The committee can recommend anything from a reprimand or a censure to fines and corrective actions or expulsion.
House Republicans are expected to file a resolution to expel Cherfilus-McCormick after the Ethics Committee releases its recommendation. A few Democrats have already signaled they would support it. But expulsion is rare and requires a two-thirds vote of the full House (288 members, assuming Rep.-elect Analilia Mejia (D-N.J.) is sworn in this evening).
“We await the recommendation that the Ethics Committee will make in a bipartisan way as they’ve done up until this point,” Hakeem Jeffries told me. “And then the Congress as a whole is going to have to make a decision as to how to implement the most appropriate punishment.”
Jeffries declined to disclose whether he has spoken to Cherfilus-McCormick or intends to do so before the hearing.
VA redistricting referendum: Voters in Virginia will decide on Tuesday whether to amend the commonwealth’s constitution to allow a one-time, mid-decade redraw of congressional maps before 2030.
If approved, the Democratic-controlled legislature could replace the current map with a new one for upcoming elections, then revert to the normal bipartisan system after 2030. The proposed map could shift Virginia from a roughly 6–5 split to a 10–1 Democratic split.
Normally, maps only change after the census—so this is a break from the standard cycle. But Democrats argue the referendum is a fair and aggressive response to GOP mid-decade gerrymandering in states like Texas, North Carolina and Missouri. (Republicans call it a power grab that overturns the bipartisan redistricting system voters approved in 2020.)
“There’s a lot of energy behind the effort to make sure that we stop the MAGA power grab,” Jeffries told reporters. “We’re not going to take our foot off the gas pedal. We’ee going to keep marching forward to make the case to the American people.”
FY27 approps hearings: The House and Senate Appropriations Committees will resume hearings on the Trump administration’s 2027 budget request.
The House Approps Interior subcommittee will hear from Secretary Doug Burgum on Tuesday and the Commerce-Science-Justice panel from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday. The full committee will mark up the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and Financial Services and General Government bills on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Senate Approps subcommittees will hold hearings on the budget requests for Interior, FSGG, USDA and the Department of Energy.
The Warsh hearing: Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing to become Federal Reserve Chair is scheduled for Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee. If confirmed, Warsh is expected to advocate for more aggressive rate cuts and structural reforms at the Fed.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has said he will block the nomination unless a Justice Department probe involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved. Because the committee is closely divided, that single defection can stall the nomination entirely—and Leader Thune has acknowledged that Warsh likely can’t advance without him. Powell’s term expires May 15, creating a hard deadline for confirmation or a messy interim arrangement.
Democrats are lining up a transparency and ethics attack on undisclosed or complex financial holdings, potential conflicts of interest and whether Warsh can act independently of Trump. As I reported on Friday, Senate Banking Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Committee Democrats have already argued his disclosures are incomplete and raise concerns about entanglements and oversight gaps.
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Happenings
All times Eastern
The House is in at noon and will vote at 6:30 p.m. on a series of suspension bills, including measures to extend FirstNet, modernize emergency alerts and 9-1-1 oversight, and accelerate and tighten accountability for broadband deployment.
The Senate is in at 3:30 p.m. and will vote at 5:30 p.m. to confirm Andrew Davis to be U.S. District Judge for the Western District of Texas.
The Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces will hold a hearing at 3:30 p.m. on the Department of Energy’s atomic energy defense activities and the Defense Department’s nuclear weapons program in reviews of the Pentagon’s 2027 defense authorization request.
The House Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to prepare several bills for floor consideration this week.
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Read All About It
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“Students are speeding through their online degrees in weeks, alarming educators” by Todd Wallack: “Some online colleges allow students to take unlimited courses on their own time, leading to quick degrees and worries about devaluing credentials.”