Did Democrats win the shutdown fight?
Democrats say they reshaped the immigration debate even without reforms. Republicans say their opponents forced a shutdown and got nothing. Inside the clash over who really caved.
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— The March jobs report will be released at 8:30 a.m. and offer the clearest real-time snapshot of whether the U.S. economy is holding up—or starting to crack—amid cooling hiring, weaker job openings, and early signs employers may be pulling back.
Early indicators and economic forecasts suggest a modest bounce back after a weak February showing. The projected rebound is largely attributed to workers returning from strikes at Starbucks and Kaiser Permanente.
Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.4%, though some analysts warn it could edge up to 4.5%. And average hourly earnings are predicted to rise by 0.3% for the month, maintaining an annual growth rate near 3.8%.
— Budget Day: Donald Trump is expected to unveil his FY27 request this morning, offering a first look at the spending cuts, defense priorities and immigration funding fights set to shape the next round of battles on Capitol Hill.
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First Things First
Republicans and Democrats are embroiled in a public dispute over which side caved in the fight over federal immigration enforcement reforms and Department of Homeland Security funding after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) announced they would pursue a two-track strategy to end the ongoing record-long DHS shutdown.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) argued House Republicans ultimately folded by embracing the Senate’s approach to fund most of DHS separately from immigration enforcement.
But Republicans contend that Democrats forced a shutdown to win ICE restrictions and came away empty-handed, noting the GOP plans to fund those agencies anyway through reconciliation.
Regardless of the rhetoric, several Democratic members and insiders told me they thought the partial shutdown—now in its 48th day—was worth it because of the strong evidence that the House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Schumer’s strategy of spotlighting ICE overreach and tying it to real-world harm landed with voters.
Democrats shifted the debate from “border security” to “government overreach and accountability.”
That shift likely contributed to Trump slipping underwater on immigration.
And instead of running on a clean “law and order/border crisis” message, Republicans are now defending the shootings of U.S. citizens, aggressive interior enforcement in cities, and the lack of transparency and accountability. Even the administration has adjusted its tone and tactics in response to backlash.
“All upside, no political downside,” one operative texted me, while adding that the base has longed for Democrats to show a willingness to fight against President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda aggressively. “That’s what they did. It’s a good foundation for next term.”
A House Democratic aide pointed to the successful discharge petition that forced a vote on a three-year extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits as an outcome of the shutdown Democrats forced last fall.
“Of course, it was worth it,” the aide said.
But some members were less certain that the political gain justified the shutdown disruptions (TSA delays, missed paychecks) that created public frustration and left Democrats without any binding reforms that made it into the funding outcome.
Meanwhile, Republicans are now moving to fund ICE and CBP via reconciliation, bypassing Democrats entirely.
A House Democrat told me they were skeptical the Trump administration would ever agree to meaningfully rein in ICE.
“Our demands were in response to the people, who continue to see how Trump disrespects them,” the member said. “The shutdown was an opportunity for Trump to continue to abuse federal workers. Totally avoidable.”
A second House Democrat told me it was hard to say at this point if the shutdown has been worth it.
“But at least ICE and Border Patrol don’t have new money to continue their reign of terror,” they said.
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DHS SHUTDOWN
GOP divisions keep DHS shutdown alive
For the second time in less than a week, the Senate passed the compromise bill to fund all DHS agencies except ICE and CBP on Thursday morning. But the GOP-controlled House did not move to pass the measure during a separate pro forma session 90 minutes later, ensuring the shutdown will likely extend at least through the weekend.
Johnson endured a two-and-an-hour House Republican Conference call, where members fumed about being asked to vote for a bill that he called “garbage” last week and could leave them vulnerable to attacks from the right for defunding law enforcement.
Members asked Johnson to postpone a vote on the Senate deal until significant progress has been made to fund ICE and CBP through reconciliation for the remainder of Trump’s term. Trump said he would soon sign an executive order to pay all DHS employees with existing federal funds.
House Democrats will hold a virtual caucus call on Monday at 5 p.m. to discuss the state of play, per a source familiar with the planning.
Thune told reporters Thursday morning that a second filibuster-proof reconciliation bill should remain as skinny as possible, despite Republican demands in both chambers to include provisions from the SAVE America Act, funding for the war in Iran, and aid to farmers and ranchers.
“There are things out there that obviously many of us are interested in, but I’m not sure how on a reconciliation vehicle like this that we need to kind of move with haste, as the president has pointed out, is probably not a likely magnet for all these other issues.”
Trump has set a June 1 deadline for Thune and Johnson to send the bill to his desk.
Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) revealed on Thursday afternoon at a luncheon in South Carolina that he is also working on a third reconciliation bill to incentivize states to enact provisions from the SAVE America Act.
“Oh, I just made news,” Graham said after his revelation.
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JUSTICE
Dems still expect Bondi to sit for Oversight depo
Democrats showed an unwillingness to allow Attorney General Pam Bondi to skip an upcoming deposition from the House Oversight Committee after President Trump fired her Thursday afternoon.
Oversight Democrats and several committee Republicans have accused Bondi of leading a White House cover-up of the full Epstein files in defiance of an Oversight subpoena and of the bipartisan legislation that forced the release of the documentation last November.
“She will not escape accountability and remains legally obligated to appear before our Committee under oath,” Robert Garcia (Calif.), the top House Oversight Democrat, said in a statement. “She must answer for her mishandling of the Epstein files and the special treatment she has given Ghislaine Maxwell.”
Bondi is out as the nation’s top law enforcement officer after about a year in the role.
The president praised her as a loyal ally and credited her with leading an aggressive crime crackdown he claims drove murders to historic lows. He said she will move to a private-sector job to be announced soon, while Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche will serve as acting attorney general.
Bondi characterized the exit as a planned transition. She said she’ll spend the next month handing off the department to Blanche before taking a private-sector role, adding she intends to continue supporting Trump and his agenda.
She described her tenure as a defining period for the Justice Department, pointing to what she called record-low murder rates, new terrorism convictions tied to Antifa, major actions against gangs and cartels, and a string of Supreme Court wins.
Speculation about Bondi’s standing had been building for weeks and intensified in the final 24 hours before her ouster.
Her removal followed mounting frustration over her handling of the Epstein files, failed efforts to prosecute Trump’s political enemies and a series of legal and political missteps that eroded confidence in her leadership of the Justice Department.
Bondi is the second cabinet official Trump has fired in the past month, following former Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, who was pushed out after her management of the department drew sustained internal criticism and political blowback.
Democrats continue to apply political pressure on Trump to remove additional cabinet and senior administration officials, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller—the architect of the president’s mass deportation operation.
“House Democrats will hold every political extremist involved in unprecedented abuses of power accountable for their lawlessness,” Jeffries said in a statement.
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Happenings
All times Eastern
The House and Senate are out.
President Trump will participate in policy meetings at 1:30 p.m. and 3 p.m. and signing time at 3:30 p.m.
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