Virginia voters weigh redraw with House control at stake
Plus: House Democrats brace for ethics fallout in Cherfilus-McCormick case and Powell probe clouds Warsh hearing as Tillis threatens delay.
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Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-N.J.) delivered her maiden floor speech last night after she was sworn in as the newest member of Congress following her decisive victory in the special election last week to fill the seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill.
“At a time when our Constitution and our rights are under strain, we are called not just to serve, but to stand up, to protect, and to deliver on the promise of equal protection and justice under the law,” she said. “That is the work ahead of us and we must be ready to take that mantle.”
With Mejia’s swearing in, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can now only lose one vote on party-line bills with full attendance, down from the two-seat cushion he temporarily enjoyed following the arrival of Rep. Clay Fuller (R-Ga.), who was elected earlier this month to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
💡 ICYMI: In Monday evening’s Congress Nerd Sunset, I wrote about the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s opposition to the GOP’s developing reconciliation bill to fund ICE and CBP through the duration of President Donald Trump’s second term. I also reported on how Democrats are likely to return to the same messaging playbook that tied the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to cuts in Medicaid and SNAP to finance tax breaks for wealthy individuals and corporations, as well as a major increase in immigration enforcement funding.
The Trump administration on Monday began accepting formal tariff refund requests via a new CBP digital portal, a process expected to take months to complete. But Democrats are wary of a process primarily designed for businesses rather than individual consumers to whom the tariffs were passed down. I explained it all to paid subscribers in Sunset as well.
📌 New this morning: Virginia voters weigh redraw with House control at stake … House Democrats brace for ethics fallout in Cherfilus-McCormick case … Powell probe clouds Warsh hearing as Tillis threatens delay
📬 Get in touch: michael@onceuponahill.com
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CAMPAIGNS
Virginia voters weigh redraw with House control at stake
Voters in Virginia will head to the polls today to decide whether to amend the commonwealth’s constitution to allow a one-time, mid-decade redraw of congressional maps before 2030 that could net Democrats up to four seats in November.
Several Democrats are bracing for a much tighter outcome than the landslide victory California enjoyed when voters approved a ballot measure to redraw its congressional maps to offset a Republican gerrymander in Texas.
“I think what you can tell from polling and from early vote, which is actually a better measure, I think the yes side will win narrowly,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told me. “But it’s going to be close.”
Rep. Susas Subramanyam (D-Va.) also expects a nail-biter.
“It’s going to be interesting,” he told me. “I think we’re going to win, though.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who campaigned in Virginia earlier this month with Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.), accused Republicans of misleading voters to believe former President Barack Obama and Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) are opposed to the referendum.
“It’s going to be close because Virginia is a purple state, and Republicans have spent tens of millions of dollars to lie to the people in the Commonwealth of Virginia because they can’t defend their position.”
President Trump and Speaker Johnson teamed up for a tele-rally Monday night aimed at driving a “no” vote on the Virginia referendum.
Jeffries told me ahead of the event that he hoped the rally would be broadcast across the commonwealth because it would expose his position against what Democrats describe as a fair and aggressive response to Republican gerrymanders in Texas, North Carolina and Missouri.
“Donald Trump, up until this point, has been trying to hide his position. He’s been in the presidential witness protection program as it relates to the referendum in Virginia,” Jeffries said. “But he can’t hide anymore, and we’re urging everyone to vote yes to stop the MAGA power grab.”
Florida state Republicans are actively exploring redrawing their congressional maps to squeeze out two to three additional seats (with some early talk as high as five, although even some Republicans see that as aggressive. Gov. Ron DeSantis has already called for a special legislative session next week specifically to revisit the congressional map.
But as of now, lawmakers haven’t released a concrete proposal. The upcoming session is where that would take shape. And Florida’s “Fair Districts” rules and recent court fights limit how aggressively maps can be drawn purely for partisan gain—meaning any new map is almost certain to face challenges.
Jeffries told me his focus was on Virginia, and then Democrats would turn their attention to the Sunshine State.
“We’re going to continue to fight back all the way through the finish line [today] in Virginia,” Jeffries said. “And then we’ll take the fight to Florida.”
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ETHICS WATCH
House Democrats brace for ethics fallout in Cherfilus-McCormick case
Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Monday that House Democrats will convene as a caucus to weigh the punishment the House Ethics Committee is expected to recommend for Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), whom the panel found last month committed 25 violations tied to allegations she misused roughly $5 million in federal funds connected to her family business, routed money into her campaign through intermediaries, and violated campaign finance and disclosure rules.
The committee can recommend penalties ranging from a reprimand or censure to fines, corrective actions, or expulsion. Democratic sources tell me they expect the bipartisan panel to call for Cherfilus-McCormick’s removal from office.
“We will proceed in a manner consistent with these types of ethics matters, which is to always, and at all times, follow the facts and apply the relevant law without fear or favor,” Jeffries said. “We’ll have a conversation as a caucus in the aftermath of the recommendation, which we anticipate will be bipartisan from the Ethics Committee.”
The proceeding is expected to function less like the penalty phase of a trial. Committee counsel and the congresswoman’s legal team will present arguments, written submissions and supporting materials—such as letters from community and religious leaders, including the president of the Palm Beach County Democratic Black Caucus, several religious and local leaders and the president of Women of Veterans Affairs.
House Republicans expected to file a resolution to expel Cherfilus-McCormick after the Ethics Committee releases its recommendation, regardless of the discipline it proposes. Expulsion requires a two-thirds vote of the full House (288 members with full attendance).
Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) is the most recent member expelled from the House, after members removed him in December 2023 following a blistering Ethics Committee report that found substantial evidence of wrongdoing. Santos was sentenced last April to just over 7 years in federal prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft. In October 2025, Trump commuted his sentence, leading to his early release after serving only a few months.
A report cited a source claiming Cherfilus-McCormick sought a Trump pardon at a White House Christmas party—but her office denies it, and the allegation remains unverified.
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ECONOMY
Powell probe clouds Warsh hearing as Tillis threatens delay
Sen. Thom Tillis is expected to use much of his time at Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing this morning not to question the nominee, but to explain why he plans to block the Federal Reserve pick from advancing out of committee.
Tillis has said he will block Warsh’s nomination until a Justice Department investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved. The senator is among a small group of Republicans who argue the probe risks politicizing the Fed or being used to pressure monetary policy, so they don’t want to move forward with a new chair under those conditions. And since Republicans have only a narrow majority, Tillis’s opposition can stall the nomination before it ever reaches the floor.
“I’m not going to spend much time talking to Kevin,” Tillis told reporters on Monday. “I’m going to start talking about what a bogus investigation Powell is subject to.”
The Justice Department is examining a multi-billion-dollar renovation of the Fed’s D.C. headquarters and whether Powell gave false or misleading testimony to Congress about the project’s cost, scope, and features. Powell and many economists argue the probe is part of a broader push by Donald Trump to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates or step aside. No charges have been filed, and a federal judge has already questioned whether there’s any evidence of a crime at all.
“The problem I have has nothing to do with the nom. It has to do with the process that we’ve got to get cleaned up,” Tillis said. “And what a shame. If the investigation wasn’t happening, this nominee would be going through in no time. And hopefully we can still clear the gates to where that still happens for him.”
Tillis told reporters that he expects the hearing to be acrimonious due to Democratic opposition to Warsh.
Democrats are lining up a transparency-and-ethics attack with aggressive questioning about Warsh’s undisclosed or complex financial holdings, potential conflicts of interest and whether Warsh can act independently of Trump. Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and others have already argued his disclosures are incomplete and raise concerns about entanglements and oversight gaps.
“It’s going to be a shirts-and-skins exercise,” Tillis said. “But I think that the Republicans should rightfully be very positive about his nomination. He’s a great nominee.”
Powell’s term expires May 15, creating a hard deadline for confirmation or a messy interim arrangement.