Democrats’ dominant off-year wins put Trump’s GOP on notice
Plus: The top Senate Democratic tax-law writer shares his thoughts ahead of the Supreme Court oral argument on Trump’s tariffs and Maryland joins the redistricting wars.
FIRST THINGS FIRST
Democrats notched decisive victories in a series of high-profile off-year elections on Tuesday—sweeping the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey, winning the New York City mayoralty, and securing a partisan-advantage redistricting measure in California—that signal renewed momentum and voters’ desire to install a check against President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda.
Last night’s sweep was also proof that the political energy of the Trump resistance hasn’t totally vanished in his second term. The party won tough races with campaigns focused on the affordability crisis and now has a template to turn these one-off wins into a sustainable strategy ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“The American people are fed up with the high cost of living, broken promises, Republican attacks on healthcare, GOP corruption and the unprecedented assault on our way of life,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement. “From lowering the cost of living to protecting healthcare, Democrats across the country laid the groundwork to take back the House next year. The razor thin Republican majority is finished.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called the results a repudiation of President Trump’s agenda.
“The cruelty, chaos, and greed that define MAGA radicalism and are skyrocketing costs were firmly rejected by the American people,” he said. “If Republicans want to keep blindly following Donald Trump into the abyss of chaos, let them. The rest of America is moving forward.”
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle‑Sears by a comfortable margin, becoming the commonwealth’s first woman governor. The win came amid a full Democratic sweep of statewide offices (governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general) and significant gains in the House of Delegates.
Mikie Sherrill’s gubernatorial victory in New Jersey over Republican former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli underscores that even in a state where the GOP gained steam in 2024, Democrats can still mobilize and win mid-cycle contests by solid margins.
California voters passed Proposition 50, a ballot measure that allows the legislature to adopt a new congressional map designed to add up to five Democratic seats in the House to offset a new gerrymandered Texas map that could flip five blue districts to red.
Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral race and became the city’s first Muslim mayor and the youngest in over a century, thanks to strong turnout—over two million ballots cast, the highest in decades—and a bold agenda proposing free public transportation, rent freezes, higher minimum wage and increased taxes on the wealthy.
Three Democratic justices on the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court—David Wecht, Kevin Dougherty and Christine Donohue—won retention for another 10-year term, ensuring the Court’s 5–2 Democratic majority remains intact. While less flashy than governors or mayoral races, this is meaningful since control over the courts provides a firewall against the MAGA right in this key battleground state.
Democrats were expected to perform well in those contests. But it was the party’s performance in less-covered downballot races that had members, aides and operatives last night libbing out in my text messages early into the morning. From upstate New York to the Deep South, Democrats quietly racked up a string of historic and symbolic wins down the ballot.
Sharon Owens and Dorcey Applyrs made history as the first Black mayors of Syracuse and Albany, while Detroit voters elected Mary Sheffield as the city’s first woman mayor. In Mississippi, Democrats flipped two state senate seats to end the GOP’s supermajority and in Georgia, they won two Public Service Commission seats for the first time in 25 years. And in Colorado, voters backed a ballot measure to tax high-income earners to provide free meals for every public school student, signaling that progressive policies can still win even far from the coasts.
Nonetheless, Republicans spent Election Day attempting to manage expectations. They argue that the major Democratic victories were on blue terrain. Not to mention, there’s still a year between next year’s midterms.
“Everybody will be spinning it based on what expectations were and all that. But these off-year elections, although maybe give you a bit of a glimpse into the future, I think for the most part are generally confined to turnout models and local issues,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters. “And I think if you look at these races that are going on, most of them are kind of focused on local issues. And some of them are focused on economic issues, which will be an issue in the midterm elections. But I think we’ve got a great case to make next year.”
The results come as the longest government shutdown in American history rages on. The Senate failed for the 14th time on Tuesday to advance the Republican-crafted continuing resolution that the House passed in September. But a bipartisan group of senators has been huddling for hours each day this week to broker a compromise to reopen the government ahead of a scheduled Veterans Day recess next week.
Senate Democrats met behind closed doors for nearly three hours on Tuesday afternoon to discuss whether a short-term funding extension into December or January, a package of bipartisan funding bills and a future vote on extending the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits is worth providing the at least Democratic votes Republicans need to reopen the government.
Thune told me there is no way he would hold the vote on a bill extending the ACA premium subsidies at a simple majority threshold, which means Democrats would need support from 13 Senate Republicans on a policy no GOP lawmakers in either chamber supported when it was enacted in 2021 and extended the following year. This is a heavy lift that could keep Democrats holding out in hopes of a firmer policy win.
“Honestly, think about what the Democrats are asking us to do here: They’re saying it’s going to take 60 just to fund the government, but we want to have a vote on a massive sort of piece of health care legislation at 51,” Thune added. “It’s just not even possible.”
President Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with the intransigence and appears to be deploying any levers under his control to apply maximum political pressure for Democrats to end the shutdown with nothing to show for the suffering it’s inflicted.
Trump indicated on his social media app that he wouldn’t comply with a court order to fund SNAP partially, but his spokesperson later walked it back, saying he would follow the judicial ruling. (House Democrats tried to offer a GOP-sponsored SNAP bill during Tuesday’s non-voting session but were not recognized by the Republican presiding officer.)
Trump is set to host Republican senators for breakfast at the White House this morning, where he’s likely to lobby them to eliminate the filibuster, which requires 60 votes to advance major legislation, so Republicans can reopen the government without Democratic support and enact a raft of his conservative priorities with a simple majority.
Thune threw cold water on the notion once again on Tuesday.
“Everybody knows the president’s position. It’s well-formed, well-established from his first term in office. His requests to eliminate the filibuster were numerous,” Thune said. “But in the end, again, the practical reality is the votes aren’t there.
But Democrats like Jeffries are skeptical of the Republicans’ resolve.
“If history is any indication, ultimately compliant Republicans in the Senate are going to cave to the demands of their puppet master, Donald J. Trump.”
TODAY IN CONGRESS
👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! It’s Wednesday morning—Day 36 of the government shutdown, now the longest in American history. President Trump also presided over the second-longest funding lapse during his first term in 2018–2019.
The House is out and hasn’t voted in 47 days. The continuing resolution the House passed on a near-party-line vote the last time it was in session expires in 16 days.
Jeffries and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene (Wash.) will hold a press conference at 12:30 p.m. on the election results.
The Senate is in at 10 a.m. It will vote at 11:30 a.m. to confirm Eric Tung to be a U.S. Circuit Judge for the Ninth Circuit and end debate on the nomination of Caleb Orr to be an Assistant Secretary of State. If debate is cut off, the Senate will vote to confirm the Orr nomination at 2:15 p.m.
Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and others will hold a press conference at 9:15 a.m. to discuss the negative impact of President Trump’s tariff policies on small businesses.
— Trump watch: The president will speak at 8:30 a.m. at the breakfast with Republican senators. Trump will then depart the White House at 9:35 a.m. to travel to Miami, where he will arrive at noon and speak at the America Business Forum at 1 p.m. He will leave Miami at 2:40 p.m. and return to the White House at 5:05 p.m.
MINORITY REPORT
Wyden hopeful ahead of Supreme Court tariff oral argument
The Supreme Court this morning will hear oral argument in a closely watched challenge to President Trump’s sweeping use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on foreign goods. The consolidated case joins a New York wine importer with a coalition of a dozen Democratic attorneys general led by Oregon’s Dan Rayfield in a test of how far the president’s economic authority can stretch beyond Congress.
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over tariff policy, didn’t want to speculate about the outcome of the oral argument given the composition of the Court’s conservative supermajority.
“We’ll see about the Supreme Court. I mean, you know, they’re hard to predict, but I think we’ve got a very good case,” Wyden told me on Monday evening. “We have a terrific lawyer on our side, Dan Rayfield, Attorney General from Oregon, and he and I know each other. He’s going to do a great job.”
But Wyden did view last week’s three bipartisan Senate votes to roll back the emergency declarations underpinning Trump’s Canada, Brazil and global tariffs as a silver lining.
“Let me tell you what was striking this weekend, because I was home, and people would come up to me and they would say things like, ‘This was a big win because you finally put some big holes in the Trump economic armor. I mean, this is what he cares about,’” Wyden added. “You got more than 180 instances, you know, of these across the board, kind of tariffs and to win 51–47 and have influential Republicans like Mitch McConnell sends a very powerful message in terms of their economic agenda.”
In a friend-of-the-court brief filed last month, 171 House Democrats and 36 senators contend that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was never meant to serve as a tariff statute and that Trump’s reliance on it to justify blanket import taxes represents an unlawful expansion of executive power that’s driving up costs for consumers and crushing small businesses. In addition to 207 congressional Democrats, the brief was signed by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)—marking the first bipartisan legal challenge against the administration brought by the House Democrats’ Litigation and Response Task Force.
POLICY BULLETIN
Clarke pushes for TPS for Jamaicans after Hurricane Melissa
Congressional Black Caucus Chair Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) is calling on Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to grant Temporary Protected Status to Jamaicans displaced by Hurricane Melissa, saying it would be “unsafe and inhumane” to send people back to an island still reeling from the storm’s devastation.
In a letter joined by more than 40 House Democrats, Clarke described widespread destruction across Jamaica, including washed-out roads, collapsed homes and long-term recovery needs that could take at least months and up to years. The Brooklyn Democrat, whose district includes one of the largest Jamaican-American communities in the country, said Congress created TPS for moments when returning home would put people in danger.
The request puts pressure on the Trump administration to decide whether to extend humanitarian protections to Jamaicans, even as it’s been openly skeptical of the TPS program. DHS hasn’t said whether it’s considering the move.
Senators press CMS on accuracy of Medicare Advantage provider lists
Senate Budget Committee Democrats are pressing Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz for answers on the accuracy of Medicare Advantage provider directories amid mounting complaints from seniors who can’t find doctors who actually take their plans.
In a letter to Oz, the senators pointed to watchdog findings showing persistent errors in the directories, including wrong addresses, closed practices and providers listed as in-network who no longer accept patients. They warned that these mistakes can delay care and saddle beneficiaries with unexpected bills. The letter is noteworthy because the same insurers and data systems that underpin Medicare Advantage also shape how private insurance networks operate. Any inaccuracies for seniors raise questions about how reliable those networks are for everyone else.
The lawmakers want CMS to explain how often it verifies provider information, what enforcement tools it uses when plans fail to comply and how it tracks and resolves beneficiary complaints. The committee’s oversight push adds to growing scrutiny of Medicare Advantage plan operations as enrollment continues to expand, now covering more than half of all Medicare beneficiaries.
TRAIL MIX
Maryland moves to redraw its congressional map amid redistricting battles
Maryland Governor Wes Moore has created a new Redistricting Advisory Commission to explore mid-cycle changes to the state’s congressional map in a move that comes as Republicans in Texas, North Carolina and other GOP-controlled states push through aggressive mid-decade redraws of their own.
The five-member bipartisan commission, chaired by Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), will hold public hearings and recommend new maps to Moore and the General Assembly.
“The right to vote is absolutely sacrosanct and having a fair process is going to be really important,” Alsobrooks told me. “And so what we are hoping with this commission is just to have the opportunity to hear from voters across the state and to do what we can to preserve the integrity of the vote. So this is really about preserving voting rights and making sure that we have fair elections.”
Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats would continue to aggressively respond to Republican gerrymanders across the country.
“Democrats will not unilaterally disarm. Democrats recognize the moment that we’re in that the pushback will continue to be ongoing and forceful, and we will not allow Donald Trump and his Republican sycophants to undermine a free and fair national congressional map as part of his toxic effort to rig the midterm elections.”
The last Maryland commission was convened in 2011, when then-Governor Martin O’Malley oversaw a redistricting process that later faced multiple court challenges. This time, state leaders are framing the process as a chance to strengthen fair representation and get ahead of potential legal or political challenges that could emerge before the next election cycle.