“People are scared”
Ahead of opening arguments in a landmark Supreme Court case on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, House LGBTQ members grapple with the uncertainty of what will come next.
👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! Welcome back to Once Upon a Hill. Four weeks after votes were cast, the final House race was called for Adam Gray in California’s 13th district against Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.), the Republican incumbent who conceded victory last night. The Democratic flip—one of three in the Golden State and three more in New York—leaves the House split 220-215 between Republicans and Democrats. But with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) set to lose three seats next month due to resignations and cabinet nominations by President-elect Donald Trump, he will effectively have a zero-seat margin through Trump’s first 100 days.
“House Democrats came up short of the majority this cycle but we over-performed the top of the ticket in battleground races across the country,” House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said in a statement following Gray’s victory. “Republicans now have no room for error because of their historically narrow margin. Going forward, I am going to do everything in my power to ensure we take back the House in 2026.”
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The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments this morning in a case that will determine whether states can block doctors from providing gender-affirming care to transgender minors.
The case—US v. Skrmetti—stems from a challenge brought by three Tennessee transgender adolescents, their families and a Memphis-based physician to a state law that prohibits transgender youth from receiving medical treatments, such as puberty blockers and hormone replacement therapies, that are allowed for minors who are not transgender. The families argue the ban discriminated against transgender people and violates their Equal Protection rights under the 14th Amendment by treating people differently because of sex. Tennessee will assert that the law isn’t discriminatory because it equally denies gender-affirming care to males and females. Since 2021, 24 states have banned hormone therapies for transgender youth.
“I’m hoping that the court will look at [the challenge] in a positive light. We would like to keep equality for everyone,” Congressional Equality Caucus Co-Chair Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.) told me last night. “I’m concerned though, given where the political environment is right now, just like here [in Congress]—it’s no different at the Court.”
Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), another Equality Caucus co-chair told me the mere possibility of the Supreme Court restricting access to health care for trans people after the 2022 Dobbs decision repealing Roe v. Wade is frightening to her constituents.
“People are scared. I spent, obviously, time in my district and hearing from trans people and their parents,” she told me last night. “People want the government out of their damn business when it comes to taking care of their children and getting them the health care that they need. And that’s what we’re talking about here.”
Speaking of Dobbs, in his brief defending the ban, Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti cited the case 10 times and asked the Supreme Court to expand its ruling overturning Roe v. Wade and allow the state to target transgender people.
Beyond this specific case, the high court remains in a legitimacy crisis following revelations that Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito accepted undisclosed luxury trips, among other scandals, and a series of controversial decisions—including to repeal affirmative action, overrule the Chevron doctrine that determined when US federal courts must defer to a government agency’s interpretation of a law or statute, and grant absolute immunity to presidents for acts in their official capacity.
While Balint acknowledged the challenging of holding faith in an institution amid its rightward shift, she said that people aren’t powerless in organizing against these attacks on vulnerable communities.
“It’s hard to have that faith given what’s happened the last two years. I mean, I can’t even believe it’s real. These are not normal times,” she told me. “What I need to convey to people is that those of us in Congress who care deeply about these issues are going to fight like hell.”
The first-term congresswoman also called on Chief Justice John Roberts to rule in favor of the transgender youth and their families.
“No, we can’t necessarily rely on the court right now, but I know, because we saw it when we were dealing with issues around Obamacare, Justice Roberts could be a leader. He could be and he needs to be—this is a time for courage.” (The difference between then and now is Roberts was a swing vote in a 5–4 court. With the current 6–3 composition, at least one other conservative justice would have to join Roberts in siding with the plaintiffs.)
Transgender people, their families and allies will gather outside the Supreme Court while the justices hear the challenge. A ruling on the case is expected by next summer.
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Manchin says farewell to an institution he no longer recognizes
Sen. Joe Manchin (I-Vt.) delivered his Senate farewell speech ahead of his retirement from the institution at the end of the year.
Manchin’s legacy is a study of incongruity. On the one hand, he’s the reason Democrats were able to block repeal of the Affordable Care Act, hold a government trifecta for the first two years of President Biden’s term, pass a $1.9 trillion pandemic recovery bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, and confirm Biden’s judges to the federal bench, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.
On the other, as an institutionalist from a deep-red state unwilling to do away with procedural mechanisms like the 60-vote threshold required to end debate on most major pieces of legislation and budge on work mandates for recipients of social benefits such as the child tax credit, Manchin’s existence relegated some of the most transformative elements of President Joe Biden’s agenda to the cutting-room floor.
Manchin will leave the Senate as he entered it—carrying the torch of bipartisanship—despite the country and Congress being as polarized as ever.
“So, while I may be leaving the Senate, I’m not going far. My boat will still be docked here, ready to bring people together—Democrats, Republicans, independents—anyone willing to sit down and talk,” Manchin said. “That’s what this country needs right now: More listening, more respect and more working together.”
During the speech, he recounted his journey from a coal-mining town in West Virginia to the First Branch, acknowledging the values instilled by his immigrant grandparents—hard work, education, and a moral obligation to help others.
He highlighted his legislative accomplishments, including infrastructure investments, healthcare reforms and energy innovation—including the Mountain Valley Pipeline and regional hydrogen hubs—and his role in protecting West Virginians’ pensions, expanding broadband and championing fiscal responsibility.
Manchin also lamented missed opportunities on immigration reform and gun control, pointing to partisanship for stalling progress. He called for a return to compromise and mutual respect, recalling how personal connections among colleagues fostered collaboration.
Before his speech, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) reflected on Manchin’s role in the Democrats’ success.
“Some of the biggest accomplishments of the past few years would not have gotten done without Joe’s help. He was always able to reach across the aisle to help us achieve the kind of bipartisan legislation we're so proud of in these past two Senates,” Schumer said. “Under our majority, even though we had lots of disagreements and a few fights—not physical, he would’ve clobbered me in those—Joe Manchin has been an invaluable partner, a dedicated public servant, and a dear friend until the end.”
Manchin, who decided not to seek reelection in 2024, will be replaced by Republican Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia in January.
Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) will deliver her farewell speech on the Senate floor this week as well.
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Schumer unanimously reelected as top Senate Democrat
Senate Democrats unanimously Sen. Schumer to be minority leader next Congress, his third atop
the caucus. He will be joined by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who was reelected as Democratic Whip, a position he’s held since 2005. Schumer and Durbin will welcome Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) into the senior leadership fold as chair of the steering and policy committee and chair of the strategic communications committee, respectively.
I want to say that I love my caucus. They're just such a beautiful group of people. We don't all agree. We're from different parts of the country, different ages and philosophies and backgrounds, but every one of my caucus members loves his or her country. Every one of them has made huge sacrifices to be here. And every one of them strives for unity, and it's one of the reasons we've been so successful in my last four years as Majority Leader, because our caucus has been great.
In addition to the Big Four, Senate Democrats also unanimously elected the following senators to leadership:
Elizabeth Warren (Mass.): Vice Chair of the Conference
Mark Warner (Va.): Vice Chair of the Conference
Bernie Sanders (Vt.): Chair of Outreach
Tammy Baldwin (Wisc.): Senate Democratic Conference Secretary
Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.): Vice Chair of Outreach
Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii): Deputy Democratic Conference Secretary
Chris Murphy (D-Conn.): Deputy Democratic Conference Secretary
Schumer has yet to appoint a senator to lead the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 midterm cycle, but Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is viewed as the favorite.
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Meeks, Jacobs introduce sweeping bill on Sudan
House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) and House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa Ranking Member Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) introduced a bill to address the ongoing crisis in Sudan where fighting, displacement and starvation have led to the deaths of 150,000 people and a civilian crisis.
The sweeping legislation mandates sanctions against individuals responsible for genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, obstructing humanitarian aid, or violating the United Nations arms embargo in Sudan. It calls for a new US strategy to prioritize civilian protection, humanitarian assistance, inclusion of civil society, and progress toward sustainable peace. Additionally, the bill establishes a special presidential envoy for Sudan to coordinate policy and diplomatic efforts and authorizes US assistance for a United Nations, African Union, or other multinational force to protect civilians. The initiative emphasizes the meaningful participation of Sudanese women and youth in conflict resolution and humanitarian planning, bans the sale of major US defense equipment to countries exacerbating the conflict by supporting the paramilitary force or Sudanese Armed Forces, and requires assessments of whether US security aid recipients are hindering humanitarian efforts in Sudan. Additionally, it mandates a comprehensive report on the use of US-made weapons in the conflict.
The lawmakers say the legislation, which is cosponsored by more than a dozen House Democrats, aligns with calls from advocacy campaigns that have urged stronger international action to support civilian protection, accountability, and a pathway toward peace.
Do you have questions about the lame-duck session or the incoming Trump presidency? Drop me a line at michael@onceuponahill.com or send me a message below to get in touch and I’ll report back with answers.
Happenings
The House will meet at 10:00 a.m. and take votes on several bills under suspension of the rules at 4:30 p.m.
The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. and vote at 11:45 a.m. to end debate on the nomination of Anthony Brindisi to be US District Judge for the Northern District of New York.
Read All About It
“The storybook start—and bitter end—of Pete Hegseth’s first marriage” by Gabriel Sherman: “Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of defense is a conservative culture warrior, a central-casting alpha male who believes in guns, God, and the primacy of the family unit. The story of his first marriage, which sources say met a contentious end after he admitted to multiple infidelities, holds a key place in Hegseth’s ambition-fueled rise.”
“The court where the rule of law still lives—for now” by Jonathan van Harmelen: “During Trump’s first term, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals was a rare oasis of judicial sobriety. It will face an even sterner test the next time around.”
“Misogyny comes roaring back” by Sophie Gilbert: “Donald Trump will return to Washington flanked by an entourage intent on imposing its archaic vision of gender politics on the nation.”
“This administration doesn’t care about the cool girls” by Dahlia Lithwick: “It doesn’t actually matter anymore if you are a party girl or non-party girl, if you want to be a mother or not—in Trump’s second presidency, all women are disposable.”
“The slow, quiet demise of American romance” by Faith Hill: “Long before calls for a 4B-style sex strike, men and women in the United States were already giving up on dating.”
“The things your wedding guests secretly despise” by The Cut: “Children on the dance floor. ‘Mr. Brightside.’ And unclear messaging about the food.”
“The year of the underconsumer” by Bindu Bansinath: “Frugality got a glossy rebrand in 2024.”
“The pressure is on for Big Tech to regulate the broken digital advertising system” by Claire Atkin: “Brands have been at the mercy of the algorithm when it comes to where their ads appear online, but they’re about to get more control.”
“How to fix the iOS 18 changes some users hate.” by Chris Velazco: “Apple’s new software packs plenty of features—and some frustrating design changes.”
The Bright Side
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The Labor Department announced a proposal to prevent unethical employers from paying workers with disabilities significantly less than the federal minimum wage. A provision of the Fair Labor Standards Act allows employers to apply for special certificates that enable them to underpay workers with disabilities. Since there is no hourly rate an employer has to pay an employee under these certifications, the majority of these workers earn less than $3.50 per hour, according to data from the Government Accountability Office.
“All workers should be treated with fairness and dignity, regardless of whether that individual has a disability or not,” Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), the ranking member on the House Education and Workforce Committee, said in a statement. “I’m grateful to the Biden-Harris administration for continuing their work to protect workers. And I hope that the incoming administration will finalize this rule after the comment period ends. In Congress, I will continue advocate for the Transformation to Competitive Integrated Employment Act, which would permanently phase out the use of 14(c) waivers and ease the transition for employers to providing workers with competitive and gainful opportunities.”
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During her first leadership press conference after becoming the number-three Senate Democrat, Sen. Klobuchar paid tribute to Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who each lost their reelection campaigns in states President-elect Trump carried last month. But the Minnesota Democrat also slipped in a Wicked reference when she pointed to wins in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin as evidence of the party defying gravity despite harsh political headwinds at the top of the ticket. Well played, senator.
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The 2024 Capitol Christmas tree is officially aglow for the season!
Speaker Johnson hosted the annual tree lighting ceremony on Tuesday evening with the Alaska congressional delegation on the West Front Lawn of the Capitol.
This year’s tree is an 80-foot spruce selected from the Zarembo Island in Alaska. The tree’s logo—the Tlingit words ‘kayéil', sagú and ka toowúk'é—is the work of Mike Aak’wtaatseen Hoyt, a historian and Teehitaan clan leader. The English translation is “peace, happiness, and joy.”
The tree will be lit nightly from nightfall until 11 p.m. each evening through Jan. 1.