Shutdown season is back
Plus: News and notes on the GOP’s nascent Trump crime bill, the Senate fight over the president’s nominees and Groundhog Day in the aftermath of the Minnesota school shooting.
First Things First
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Lawmakers return to Washington on Tuesday after the August recess with a sprawling agenda and plenty of political issues to discuss. Anything you want me to ask a member? Reply to this email and I’ll add it to my notebook.
In tonight’s edition, I break down the politics behind the looming shutdown deadline, now just a month away. I also map the likeliest outcomes—from least to most—to give you a baseline before the madness kicks in this week.
But first, let’s discuss three additional subplots to keep top of mind as we get back into the swing of it.
— Republicans eye sweeping crime crackdown: President Trump says he is working with congressional Republicans on a “comprehensive crime bill,” though even GOP lawmakers admit they aren’t sure what such legislation would entail. Early outlines include rolling back no-cash bail policies and expanding federal involvement in D.C.’s justice system.
Democrats see something else at play: A coordinated attempt by Trump and Republican leaders to change the subject from the deeply unpopular One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which cut Medicaid and SNAP and bears a name that even Trump wants to rebrand now, by stoking fear with familiar talking points about so-called urban crime. Many of the cities Trump has singled out—New York, Chicago, Baltimore, Washington—are led by Black mayors and city councils, a fact Democrats argue shows the racism underscoring the push.
The White House’s call for Congress to pass anti-bail legislation this month is the clearest signal yet that Republicans want crime to be a centerpiece of their fall agenda. But beyond those talking points, the comprehensive package remains vague enough that Democrats charge the effort as less about policymaking than about scapegoating and fearmongering.
—Showdown looms over executive branch picks: Senate Republicans will likely resume consideration of whether to change Senate rules to overcome what they view as Democrats weaponizing Senate procedure and breaking decades of norms around unanimous consent and voice votes for noncontroversial executive branch nominees. It would mark another significant erosion of minority rights in the chamber if Republicans follow through on a nuclear option, similar to both parties’ prior moves on filibusters for executive, lower-court and Supreme Court nominations.
Democrats, for their part, have forced more than 40 routine nominees to receive roll-call votes that in past administrations would have been confirmed in seconds by voice vote or unanimous consent. Each roll-call eats up days of floor time, slowing confirmations to a crawl. Out of more than 1,000 senior-level appointments requiring Senate approval, just 135 have been confirmed so far. Another 145 nominees, nearly half of whom have bipartisan support, have already cleared committee but remain stalled on the floor in some cases for months.
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) argued in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last week that the unfilled critical posts—including the undersecretary for nuclear security at the Energy Department, ambassadors to NATO allies, and the top investigative official at the CIA—weaken U.S. security, diplomacy and economic leadership.
Historically, the vast majority of noncontroversial nominees have been confirmed quickly by voice vote or unanimous consent, with confirmation rates of 98 percent for Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, 90 percent for George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and 57 percent for Joe Biden. Trump saw 65 percent of those nominees confirmed in his first term. None have been in his second.
Sources I spoke to over the recess called it ironic that Republicans are now complaining about Senate Democrats stalling Trump’s nominees, given that the GOP refused even to consider Merrick Garland’s Supreme Court nomination in 2016. They also told me that every nomination matters and that these aren’t “routine” posts but part of an ideological project to remake the government. (Related: C-SPAN covered my panel on Project 2025 at the annual National Association of Black Journalists convention in Cleveland earlier this month, ICYMI.) With limited power in the minority, slowing down nominations is one of the few tools to check the executive branch. Not to mention, Democrats frame the blockade as a defense of democratic institutions. Barrasso’s statistics about past speedy confirmations are irrelevant because of the unprecedented stakes under Trump’s second term.
— Gun debate resumes under fresh grief: This week marks Congress’s first session since the tragic mass shooting at the Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis last Wednesday, where gunfire during a school-wide Mass left two children dead—an 8-year-old boy and a 10-year-old girl—and 17 others wounded, including children and elderly parishioners.
Democrats are expected to renew demands for a robust expansion of the gun-safety measures enshrined in the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that followed two deadly mass shootings at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York and Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, arguing that the massacre underscores the urgent need for broader reforms.
Republicans, while expressing sympathy for the victims, are likely to push back against new firearms restrictions and instead lobby for increased investments in mental-health services. But with partisan divisions deep and no clear pathway to compromise, Capitol Hill insiders caution that meaningful legislative action remains unlikely.
Now, back to the government funding negotiations.