Trump starts the clock on Iran
Plus: Congress reckons with rising threats after the Minnesota shootings and Senate Republicans struggle to unify around their version of the megabill.
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The Senate wrapped up a short week on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the Juneteenth holiday. The House is out this week, with members back home holding events to raise awareness about the GOP megabill’s impact on community hospitals (more on that below) or conducting oversight at ICE detention centers as the Trump administration continues its aggressive mass deportation operations.
In this evening’s edition: The latest on the future of congressional member security following last weekend’s shootings of two Minnesota state legislators, and Senate Republicans’ urgent search for consensus on Trump’s megabill without upending the House GOP’s fragile whip count.
But let’s start with the Israel-Iran conflict, which remains the most volatile and unpredictable story in global politics. It carries serious national security implications and ripple effects across Congress, as lawmakers respond to (or dodge questions about) Trump’s provocative posts, weigh war powers authority and brace for what comes next.
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All eyes on Trump
As Iranian missiles hit a hospital in southern Israel and Israeli forces attacked a heavy water reactor in Iran this morning, lawmakers in both parties waited on Trump’s next move in the Middle East.
The president provided an answer this afternoon through his spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt. Well, sort of.
“Based on the fact that there is a chance of substantial negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Leavitt quoted Trump as saying during a White House press briefing this afternoon.
The president’s 14-day window came after several days of uncertainty.
Trump convened his national security team in the Situation Room for the third day in a row after leaving the G7 summit in Canada early to deal with the war.
“I may do it, I may not do it,” he told reporters Wednesday, when asked about a potential strike. “Nobody knows what I’m gonna do.” Later, he told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that he prefers to decide “as close to the last minute as possible.”
Iran rejects Trump’s call for “ultimate surrender”: Iran’s supreme leader issued a fresh warning to the United States on Wednesday, saying any direct involvement in Israel’s strikes against the Islamic Republic would lead to “irreparable damage.”
The statement from 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was first read aloud by a state TV anchor, paired with a static image of the leader. It came as Israel intensified strikes on targets tied to Iran’s nuclear program—an escalation that has raised fears the U.S. could be pulled into another Middle East war.
“Any military involvement by the U.S. in this field will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage for them,” Khamenei said, before urging Iranian officials to press forward “with strength and trust in God.”
A grainy follow-up video of Khamenei delivering the same remarks aired later, though it lacked the production quality typical of his office. His location remains undisclosed, and Iranian media haven’t explained the delay or quality shift. But the message was clear: Tehran sees U.S. intervention as a red line.
Commander-in-Truth: Trump has also been posting real-time updates to Truth Social, including a demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” a claim that he knows Khamenei’s location and a call for the evacuation of Tehran—a city of nearly 10 million—with no explanation.
This approach isn’t new. But as tensions rise, critics warn that diplomacy-by-social-media injects volatility and confusion into moments that demand precision and strategic discipline. Aides argue that Trump’s bluntness is part of his psychological warfare strategy. But with nuclear stakes on the table, the risks of miscalculation are high.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told me the moment demands de-escalation and clear-eyed leadership.
“President Trump is not engaging in a level of high-level leadership that seems responsibly designed to deescalate the situation,” Jeffries said. “And that’s been unfortunate.”
The war powers debate: Congress and presidents have clashed throughout history over who decides when the U.S. goes to war and now is no different.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) introduced a resolution banning the use of force against Iran without a congressional vote. Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) introduced a House version. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) reintroduced a separate measure to block funding for military action without congressional approval.
Still, any war powers resolution now would be mostly symbolic. Even if it passed the Senate, it would likely stall in the GOP-controlled House—and Trump would almost certainly veto it. Overriding that veto would require a two-thirds vote in both chambers, an all-but-impossible threshold.
The Senate will receive a classified briefing on Iran early next week. I’m told by a source familiar with the planning that the House will also receive one.
Meanwhile, cracks are emerging within the MAGA base. Some Republicans back a strike to stop Iran from going nuclear. Others, especially from the isolationist wing, oppose U.S. intervention. Trump ignored concerns: “My supporters are more in love with me than ever.”
Vice President JD Vance defended Trump’s stance as “restrained” and consistent, stressing the goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon—“the easy way or the other way.”
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Member safety remains top of mind following Minnesota shooting
The assassination last weekend of Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, wasn’t just a local tragedy. It was a reminder that the threats facing public officials are becoming more serious, more personal and harder for Congress to ignore. (State Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, were also shot in their nearby home by the same suspect but survived.)
The Senate received a security briefing this week with the chamber’s top law enforcement official and U.S. Capitol Police.
“It was a sobering presentation on the question of the assassination and the vulnerability of many people in public life today,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told reporters.
Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) used the briefing to advocate for more Capitol Police funding.
House Democrats received a separate member safety briefing this week. (House Republicans held theirs over the weekend.)
“We need to dramatically increase the resources that are available to keep every single member of the House—Democrats and Republicans—safe in an environment that is increasingly violent,” Jeffries told me.
Jeffries and House Administration Committee Ranking Member Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) sent a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) urging an increase to each member’s fund to cover security and the official office expenses it already covers.
Morelle also joined House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) in a bipartisan letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi requesting that a federal prosecutor be assigned to each judicial district to investigate threats against members, even if only part-time.
Lee deletes cruel X posts: Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) sparked backlash by posting that the shootings were “what happens when Marxists don’t get their way” and calling the tragedy “Nightmare on Waltz Street”—inaccurately blaming Gov. Tim Walz and the political left.
Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) confronted Lee outside the Senate chamber Monday to express the pain his comments caused her and her constituents.
“I needed him to hear from me directly what impact I think his cruel statement had on me, his colleague,” Smith said. Lee, who Smith described as seemingly caught off guard by her confrontation, refused to answer questions afterward. His aide attempted to block cameras from filming the senator’s departure from the Capitol.
Lee eventually deleted the posts on Tuesday after a conversation with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who serves with him on the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Fanning the flames: The shootings come amid a broader climate of political aggression. Members of Congress—most recently Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), who was forcibly removed from a federal building during a press conference Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem held on immigration enforcement last week—are facing escalating hostility, fueled in part by the Trump administration’s confrontational posture toward dissent.
Padilla gave an emotional floor speech on the experience, calling out what he described as the administration’s militarization of Los Angeles—one of several blue cities Trump has directed ICE to target.
And while presidents traditionally call state and local officials after a tragedy, Trump has rejected that norm.
“I’m not calling him. Why would I call him?” Trump said of Walz. “The guy doesn’t have a clue. He’s a mess.”
A Walz spokesperson said the governor hoped Trump would act like a president for all Americans but that the moment is bigger than either man: “It’s about the Hortman family, the Hoffman family, and the State of Minnesota.”
Former President Joe Biden called Walz over the weekend to offer his condolences.
Suspect in custody: Vance Luther Boelter, 57, of Green Isle, Minn., was arrested Sunday night after a two-day search—the largest in state history. Authorities recovered multiple firearms, a hit list of potential targets, and evidence of premeditation.
Boelter faces federal charges of murder, stalking, and firearms violations, plus state counts of second-degree murder and attempted murder. Prosecutors may upgrade charges and the Justice Department is weighing the death penalty.
The alleged shooter found the lawmakers’ addresses online, according to court records.
“Every American’s safety is at risk until Congress cracks down on data brokers,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said in a preview of a policy issue members may look to find common ground on going forward.
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Senate GOP hits megabill snag
Senate Republicans left the Hill this week still short of the 50 votes needed to pass their version of a sprawling megabill packed with President Trump’s top legislative priorities.
Vice President Vance attended the Senate GOP lunch on Tuesday and said the White House wants the bill on Trump’s desk by the August recess. That would require passage by the Senate’s self-imposed July 4 deadline to give the House time to approve it.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles offered an even more aggressive timeline: She wants the bill passed next week so it’s ready for Trump’s signature by the Independence Day recess. Alrighty, then.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is preparing to formally begin the process for final passage mid-next week. Various parts of the bill are still undergoing the Byrd Bath, where aides debate whether certain provisions comply with Senate budget rules. Democrats are targeting provisions like the 10-year AI regulation moratorium and a tax break for gun silencers.
The Senate parliamentarian will make the final call.
Finance GOP proposes deeper Medicaid cuts: Senate Finance Committee Republicans unveiled their portion of the bill Monday to make the bulk of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent while adding new tax breaks and cutting Medicaid more deeply than the House-passed version.
The bill preserves lower individual tax rates, maintains the $10,000 SALT cap and doubles the estate tax exemption, shielding up to $25 million per couple. A pared-back Child Tax Credit expansion increases the maximum to $2,200 but caps full refundability at $1,700 in 2025, well below the fully refundable credit Democrats passed in 2021.
New carveouts include tax exemptions for overtime pay, tips and interest paid on car loans. But Trump’s campaign promise to fully eliminate income taxes for tipped and blue-collar workers remains unmet.
The Senate bill slashes Medicaid funding by lowering the allowable provider tax threshold from 6 to 3.5 percent, jeopardizing a key financing tool for rural hospitals. It also repeals enhanced match rates for Medicaid expansion states, ends incentives for continuous children’s coverage and codifies a permanent ban on federal Medicaid dollars for abortion services.
Still, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said the bill lacked sufficient offsets to pay for the tax cuts and that he couldn’t support it in its current form. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) called the provider tax provision a threat to rural hospitals and said he’s proposed fixes to GOP leaders. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has floated a fund to support rural providers.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) voiced concerns about the Medicaid work requirements timeline.
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Administrator Mehmet Oz defended the package at the Senate GOP’s weekly press conference, calling it the most ambitious health reform bill in U.S. history. He dismissed concerns about hospital viability, calling provider taxes “legalized money laundering.” (Hawley would like a word.)
The White House circulated a report claiming 11 percent of Medicaid spending went to nondisabled adults “abusing the system.” But advocates point out many of these recipients work low-wage jobs without benefits, meet eligibility requirements and already pay payroll or sales taxes. Expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care and Inflation Reduction Acts was meant to include them.
SALT caucus seethes: The Senate version includes only a $10,000 SALT cap—far less than the $40,000 threshold House Republicans negotiated. Blue-state GOP members have said anything lower could cost their votes. But Senate Republicans appear willing to call their bluff. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) is attempting to broker a compromise.
CBO drops brutal deficit score: The Congressional Budget Office released what’s known as a dynamic score this week that found the megabill would add $2.8 trillion to the deficit over a decade, even after accounting for projected economic growth. With interest payments, the total cost rises to $3.4 trillion. The bill is projected to grow the economy by an average of just 0.5 percent over the same period, a modest bump outweighed by the burden of rising debt and higher interest rates.
Even more stunning: The CBO estimates the House-passed version only pays for 3.5 percent of itself. In other words, $96.50 of every $100 in tax cuts and spending provisions are deficit-financed.
For a party that has spent years decrying red ink under Democratic presidents and branding itself the steward of fiscal discipline, these numbers are politically explosive, especially as Republicans push deep cuts to social programs like Medicaid and SNAP under the banner of “tough choices.” Expect Democrats to seize on the report as proof that the GOP’s economic agenda is neither self-financing nor socially balanced.
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Of Equal Importance
The Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors in a 6–3 ruling, dealing a major blow to equality rights and allowing similar laws in more than 20 states to stand. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority that the law targets age and medical purpose, not sex or transgender status. In dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor (joined by Justices Elana Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson) argued the court abandoned “transgender children and their families to political whims.” Read more
Related: A federal judge blocked a Trump administration order that would bar transgender and non-binary people from holding passports reflecting their gender identity. The ruling preserves a 2022 Biden-era policy allowing “X” markers for non-binary applicants, reversing prior rules that restricted designations to “M” or “F” only. Read more
The Senate passed the bipartisan GENIUS Act—creating a federal framework for payment stablecoins—in a 68–30 vote, with 18 Democrats joining all but two Republicans (Sens. Hawley and Rand Paul (Ky.)). The bill’s fate in the House is uncertain. House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) opposes it for ignoring Trump family ties to the crypto industry. At the same time, Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) wants it paired with broader crypto legislation. Read more
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates flat for the fourth consecutive meeting, citing inflation, labor market resilience and economic uncertainty driven by new tariffs. President Trump has publicly pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates to spur growth and offset tariff-related impacts, an extraordinary move since past administrations have typically respected the Fed’s independence. Read more
Ohio Republicans introduced a sweeping bill that would criminalize abortion, ban in vitro fertilization and restrict some contraception. The legislation is designed to override the state’s 2023 constitutional amendment protecting reproductive freedom. Read more
Former Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) began his 11-year sentence this week after failed public appeals for a Trump pardon. Menendez, now at a federal prison in Northeast Pennsylvania, became the first sitting member of Congress convicted of conspiring to act as a foreign agent last year. Read more
The NAACP will not invite President Trump to its national convention next month, breaking a 116-year tradition. “Trump is attacking our democracy and our civil rights,” NAACP President Derrick Johnson said. “He believes more in the fascist playbook than in the U.S. Constitution.” Read more
President Trump signed a third executive order extending the ban on TikTok—passed by Congress last year—for another 90 days through mid-September. Critics say the extensions stretch the law’s limits and undermine congressional intent, though legal experts say Trump likely still falls within his broad enforcement discretion. Read more
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“The Supreme Court takes aim at abortion protections in blue states” by Mark Joseph Stern: “The Supreme Court has not taken itself out of the battle over abortion. It has merely picked a different side.”
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“Inside DOGE’s chaotic takeover of Social Security” by Alexandra BerzonNicholas Nehamas and Tara Siegel Bernard: “The drama offers a case study in how Elon Musk’s team sought to run a critical government agency through misinformation and social media blasts—and how longtime employees responded.”