“He ruins his successes”
How the lame-duck funding fight and Trump’s cabinet appointments could weaken the president-elect when he returns to office.
👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! Welcome back to Once Upon a Hill. Last week, I asked a Democratic insider who worked on Capitol Hill during the first Trump administration if there were any lessons from Trump 1.0 that could help congressional Democrats navigate the upcoming sequel: “He always ruins his successes with shortsighted decisions, which ultimately gives us more governing power than we would otherwise have,” they told me. These words were top of mind as I listened to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) tell Fox News on Sunday that he expects Congress will pass a short-term extension into next March to keep the government open beyond the Dec. 20 deadline, which he says isn’t enough time to pass the 12 bills that make sure the lights stay on. The first 100 days of a new administration are considered a yardstick to size up the success of a new administration, and instead of hitting the ground running enacting his agenda, Trump will be bogged down with old legislative business. Republicans say they’re fine with this because it will allow them to slash investments in domestic programs one fiscal year earlier than expected. But Democrats warn that even with a GOP trifecta next year, Republicans will still need their help to fund the government so we could be in for a clash once members return from the holidays in January.
⇢ Napkin math: Another success-ruining exercise is Trump’s cabinet appointments. With four uncalled races, House Republicans will have a four-seat majority next month. But the president-elect has already nominated three members to his cabinet—House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (NY) to be Ambassador to the United Nations, Rep. Michael Waltz (FL) to National Security Adviser, and former Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL) to be Attorney General, perhaps the most controversial of all. Until those seats are filled through special elections, Johnson’s majority could be as slim as one due to Trump staffing his White House with congressional loyalists and complicating the whip count on any party-line measures.
⇢ The view from House Dems: House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (CA) told reporters last week that the easiest path to keeping the government open is to pass an “omnibus,” a single bill that combines all 12 appropriations bills that require just one vote for passage. “We shouldn’t put them in a position to flirt again with a government shutdown. But that has been their track record. We stand ready to work with them on topline numbers to fund government and that has been our consistent position,” Aguilar said. “And I will note, in every scenario, it has taken Democrats and Republicans to fund government. Any scenario in the future will include Democrats as well.”
Happenings
The House will meet at 12 p.m. and take votes on several bills at 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to markup a bill that failed last week to prevent the IRS from imposing fines and tax penalties on Americans held hostage upon their return and to prepare for floor consideration legislation that would increase the frequency of lease sales for energy production.
The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. and vote at 5:30 p.m. to confirm Embry Kidd as US Circuit Judge for the Eleventh Circuit.
President Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing this morning before attending an event launching the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. He will also participate in the first session of the G20 Summit this morning, followed by the G20 Leaders Reception this evening.
Vice President Harris will receive briefings and hold internal staff meetings in Washington, DC.
Do you have questions about the lame-duck session or the incoming Trump presidency? Drop me a line at michael@onceuponahill.com or send me a message below to get in touch and I’ll report back with answers.
WH readies disaster aid request
White House budget chief Shalanda Young published a memo this morning calling for Congress to pass emergency funding to support the long-term recovery from the deadly storms and disasters that have struck American communities since lawmakers passed a comprehensive disaster package in December 2022. The memo comes ahead of a formal request from the Biden administration for disaster aid and outlines six requests from federal agencies over the past few weeks that the government has yet to act on. While Speaker Johnson declined to reconvene the House early to replenish the federal disaster loan program after the Small Business Administration depleted the fund following Hurricanes Helene and Milton, he said last month that Congress would likely take action when it returned to Washington after the election. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters last week that replenishing the disaster relief fund remains a priority for House Democrats during the lame-duck session. “It has to be addressed this Congress,” Jeffries added.
⇢ Little fires everywhere: Storms aren’t the only extreme weather events on the mind of Jeffries. The New York City Fire Department has responded to more than 230 brush fires in the last two weeks, including one in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park earlier this month that burned two acres. The FDNY enacted a voluntary evacuation plan on Sunday for 165 homes in a community near the New York-New Jersey border after conditions renewed a wildfire Saturday that escaped a containment line. And New England states were under red flag alerts for wildfires this weekend as communities in the Northeast and around the country deal with a surge in late fall fires.
“Clearly, we have a problem when you are seeing brush fires in places like Prospect Park Brooklyn and in other parts of the Northeast. We’ve seen extreme weather events later into hurricane season hit with greater intensity and devastate places like Florida and Georgia and North Carolina,” Jeffries told me on Friday. “The climate crisis is not a Democratic issue or Republican issue. It’s an issue for the entire world to deal with in a meaningful fashion and I’m hopeful that we will be able to do so and find the necessary common ground.”
⇢ New York state of mind: President-elect Trump nominated former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) to lead the Environmental Protection Agency last week. Jeffries told me he hopes Zeldin’s time in Congress will inform his approach to climate policy in the upcoming administration. “Lee Zeldin is someone I respect, someone that I serves with, someone who I disagree with on a whole host of issues,” Jeffries said. “But actually, given the communities that he represented on the eastern end of Long Island in Suffolk County has some familiarity as far as these things go in the context of conservative Republicans with the importance of protecting our climate, protecting our environment and protecting God's green earth. I’m hopeful that we will be able to find some common ground as it relates to combating the climate crisis with the fierce urgency of now.”
⇢ The case for keeping the IRA: Project 2025, the conservative blueprint Trump's allies created for him in case he was reelected to the White House, calls for the repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, the 2022 law that invested more than $780 billion in domestic energy security and climate change. “As a result of the Inflation Reduction Act, which is one of the signature accomplishments of President Joe Biden, Vice President Harris and Democrats in the Congress who enacted the largest investment in combating the climate crisis in the history of the world, the jobs that are being created in terms of standing up a clean energy economy are disproportionately cited in red states and in small-town America and in rural America and in exurban America,” Jeffries added. “If the new administration truly is determined to stand up and improve the quality of life for hardworking American taxpayers and working-class Americans, they should lean into supporting the clean energy economy and the wind and solar jobs that have been created in the heartland of America, not undermining it.”
Espaillat: Democrats shouldn’t get sidetracked
Whether it’s attacks on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, trans people or immigrant communities, several Democrats told me last week that Republicans successfully exploited culture wars in the election to distract from the suffering their legislative proposals—tax cuts for billionaires and big corporations, tariffs on imported goods that will likely lead to higher costs for working people and a mass deportation program that could separate families and even kick documented immigrants out of the country—would inflict on everyday Americans. Those same Democrats contend that the key to winning back the majority in two years is simple: Focus on economic challenges people are facing instead of responding to what they describe as GOP attempts to divide Americans and marginalize vulnerable communities. “We should not hear but listen to the American people. I think there’s a difference between hearing—you hear an ambulance siren, but you listen to people,” Rep. Adriano Espaillat, who represents Upper Manhattan and is running to serve as chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. “So I think that we should adhere to that practice: To listen to mothers and fathers and grandparents across the nation, and not to be sidetracked, not to fall into traps about this sort of like side debate that somehow impacted us in this election cycle and sidetracked us for what we needed to do, which is to stay united, to focus on pocketbook issues, to focus on and the desires of the American people, which is to have access to health care, better housing, quality education for their kids and good jobs.”
House passes FAFSA reform legislation
The House passed a bill on Friday that would require the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) form to be released annually by Oct. 1 instead of Jan. 1. The bill comes as the Education Department botched the rollout of an overhauled FAFSA form and left families and schools confused as they planned for the 2024 academic year. Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), the top Democrat on the House Education and Workforce Committee, said the bill struck a balance between ensuring timely access to financial aid and not compromising the quality of the application process. “We’ve made significant progress in simplifying the FAFSA and expanding financial aid in recent years,” Scott added. “This bill will help ensure that even more students have the information they need in a timelier manner to access Pell Grants and other vital student aid.”
In the Know
⇢ President Biden met with President Xi Jinping on Saturday in Lima, Peru, on the sidelines of the APEC Summit to discuss US-China relations in their third and final meeting of Biden’s presidency. The discussion covered bilateral, regional, and global issues and focused on managing competition, preventing conflict, and advancing cooperation. Notably, the two leaders agreed that humans, not artificial intelligence, should control the decision to use nuclear weapons.
⇢ House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-KY) announced last week a markup on Wednesday to consider several bills, including a measure that would eliminate authorizations and funding for DEI programs. The legislation would also direct the Office of Personnel Management to abolish all federal DEI offices and require the Office of Management and Budget to rescind all DEI regulations.
⇢ Rep. Melanie Stansbury led a letter to President Biden requesting that he elevate Indigenous voices during the United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as COP29. Stansbury and her colleagues argue that traditional knowledge and practices Indigenous communities pass down to future generations are critical to global resilience.
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“How Kamala Harris burned through $1.5 billion in 15 weeks” by Shane Goldmacher: “Her frenzied spending has led to second-guessing among some Democrats and questions as she has pressed for more cash since the election.”
“Trump’s nominations put NC’s Tillis under a microscope. Why he's the nation's ‘most vulnerable’ GOP senator” by Paul Specht and Will Doran: “The Republican North Carolina senator is up for reelection in 2026. Can he please a GOP base that has been hostile toward him, while maintaining enough independence to woo moderate voters?”
“The Democrats weren’t stupid or crazy—just wrong” by Ramesh Ponnuru: “The party’s debacle of 2024 shows how easy it is for partisans to misunderstand their own victories.”
“Inside Big Tech’s bid to sink the online kids safety bill by Georgia Wells, Kristina Peterson and Natalie Andrews: “Tech giants and their allies lean on culture-war issues to splinter bipartisan support for the bill.”
“A $12,000 surgery to change eye color is surging in popularity” by Dominique Mosbergen: “Keratopigmentation could be dangerous, doctors warn. Patients say it’s worth the risks.”