The House is back tonight, but Dems expect continued GOP chaos

“I hope they have a renewed sense of purpose when they come back,” one House Democrat told me of her colleagues on the other side of the aisle.

New York Congresswoman Grace Meng hopes House Republicans return to Congress this year with a “renewed sense of purpose.” Photo courtesy of @RepGraceMeng/X

👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! Happy New Year and welcome back to the Once Upon a Hill newsletter, your handy twice-weekly guide to the congressional politics and campaigns. I’m Michael Jones.

In this edition: Three House Democrats in their own words on why they’re bearish that Republicans found their religion over the holidays. Plus, the latest on the Senate border security negotiations, the fallout from the Defense chief’s hospitalization scandal, reading recommendations, the seasoning blend I’ve been sprinkling on everything, and much more.

But first things first…

⇢ Programming note: OUAH will publish its paid edition on Tuesday mornings and the free edition on Friday mornings in 2024, a switch from the Monday and Thursday cadence I announced when the newsletter launched last month.

The Tuesday edition is exclusive to paid subscribers who work in politics or deeply care about how Congress legislates the most pressing policy issues.The Friday (free) newsletter is intended for a broader audience, including political novices, first-time voters or disengaged skeptics, and will occasionally pick up where Tuesday left off, recap the storylines shaping the national convo, explain to outsiders how Washington really works.

Both editions are essential reading and designed to distill the signal from the noise in a disorderly digital news environment.

⇢ What to watch from Congress this year: In my latest column for Courier, I wrote about the five major storylines that will inform the electoral landscape in 2024, which has the makings to be a chaotic year in congressional politics.

It’s a solid primer to give you a head start leading up to Election Day in 303 days (but who’s counting?!). And if you’re interested in how campaigns are funding their digital strategies, be sure to add FWIW, an incredible newsletter by my Courier editors Kyle Tharp and Lucy Ritzmann, to your reading list this election year.

⇢ Ask me anything: Well, not anything. But I’ve budgeted some space in the last Tuesday newsletter of January for a mailbag where I’ll answer your burning questions about the 2024 election, policy issues, and the legislative process or how I cover Congress from the Capitol. You can reply to this email with your questions, post them in the comments section of the web version of this edition or reach me at michael@onceuponahill.com.

⇢ ICYMI: President Joe Biden kicked off the 2024 leg of his reelection bid with two fiery campaign speeches as he sharpened his attacks on former President Donald Trump as a clear and present danger to American democracy and the Democratic Party’s policy priorities. The first speech was last Friday near Valley Forge, Pennsylvania; the second was at Mother Emanuel AME Church in South Carolina. Read my recaps of each speech: Valley Forge, Mother Emanuel

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⇢ News and notes:

House GOP’s shrinking majority: The House returns to the Capitol this evening with a daunting to-do list (more on that below). And Republicans will look to manage it with an an ever-dwindling majority that could make whipping votes an even taller task than last year.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) announced he’ll be out until February to receive a stem cell transplant following successful chemotherapy to treat a form of blood cancer. By the end of January, House Republicans will hold a slim 218-213 majority until Scalise returns, giving them a nominal one-vote margin on party-line bills.

Scalise’s announcement followed the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) and the resignations of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), who will leave public office to become president at Youngstown State University.

The special election for Santos’s seat will be on February 3. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California on Monday announced the primary to fill McCarthy’s seat will be on March 13 with a runoff scheduled for May 21 if needed.

DSCC invests in MT/OH org staff: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday announced an eight-figure investment to fund organizing staff in Montana and Ohio, two red states critical to Senate Democrats holding their majority. The investment will focus on field organizing, field training programs to increase volunteer capacity, data and analytics, voting access and protection and outreach to communities of color. The DSCC has already announced funding for initiatives in other competitive states and will announce additional states and funding later this year.

Biden accepts SOTU invite: Speaker Mike Johnson invited Joe Biden to give the State of the Union on March 7, which Biden accepted.

If that feels later than usual, you’re not buggin’: It’s the latest SOTU in a century and is only the second time in the past two decades that the event has been in March.

This year’s address also comes two days after Super Tuesday, where nearly a third of the delegates to the presidential nominating conventions will be awarded and three days before Trump’s DC trial for conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election is set to start.

Swalwell threatener files for Congress: This is a wild one. Joshua Hall, who was convicted last year of threatening to kill Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Ca.), has filed to run in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district, Katherine Schwartz of NOTUS reported late last week.

Swalwell called the filing absurd that Hall, who threatened to murder the congressman with an assault weapon barely spent a year in prison while non-violent drug offenders are locked up for years. “Our system must make clear you will serve a long sentence—not run for office—when you threaten violence,” Swalwell said.

Hall told Schwartz he deserved a second chance. “I still want to be able to make a positive impact,” Hall added.

The number of threat investigations by United States Capitol Police decreased in 2022 from the previous year but remains historically high with the number of threats against both parties being similar. The 2023 threat investigations data hasn’t been released yet.

PA-11 is R+13 district and is currently repped by Lloyd Smucker, who has held the seat since 2016.

SCOTUS allows Idaho abortion order: The Supreme Court ordered Idaho’s near-total abortion ban to remain in effect while the case is pending before the justices, who weighed in on a statewide abortion ban for the first time since the court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. The court justices have agreed to hear an appeal in the case in April. They will decide whether federal law requires hospitals to provide abortion care when necessary to “stabilize” the patient or whether states can ban it. But abortion rights advocates are concerned the Idaho order could embolden other states with less restrictive bans to pass harsher laws.

Dingell/Jayapal friendly wager: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) owes Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) some Seattle chocolates and coffee. The two House Democrats agreed to a friendly wager ahead of the College Football Playoff National Championship Playoff game in Houston on Monday night where Michigan won in a 34-13 victory over Washington. Had the Huskies beat the Wolverines, Jayapal would have enjoyed some Detroit-style pizza.

Keep reading for the rest of my notebook on the top storylines I’m tracking on Capitol Hill…

“This has become a fantasy Congress”