EXCLUSIVE: How to talk about the war in Gaza with Biden skeptics
New polling on the messaging that resonates most with detractors of the president’s Israel policy. Plus: news and notes on the affordable housing crisis, Gun Violence Awareness Month and more.
President Joe Biden last week announced a proposal to establish an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and surge humanitarian aid into the region, free the remaining hostages held captive by the militant Palestinian group Hamas and begin the reconstruction of Gaza.
The announcement came after months of public pressure from diverse communities and behind-the-scenes US-led diplomacy in the Middle East. But for a significant percentage of people who voted for Biden in 2020, the White House’s response to the war has plummeted enthusiasm among young voters and voters of color, whom the president’s re-election campaign is working to reenergize by November.
In a poll conducted by voting rights and democracy group Public Wise and exclusively shared with Once Upon a Hill ahead of its release tomorrow, 11 percent of voters who supported Biden in 2020 said are currently uncommitted to voting again for the president but still planning to vote or are considering voting but undecided about for whom. And while that figure may seem marginal, in an election that will be decided by a handful of votes in a few states, every voter will count.
“One of the things that people keep asking us is, ‘What do we say to people who are afraid to vote or not willing to vote Biden because of this?’” Christina Baal-Owens, executive director at Public Wise, told me in an interview this morning. “We really just wanted to come up with very practical answers that could be used now and until November to talk to voters who are either on the fence or really dug in about not voting for Biden or not voting against Trump because of this issue.”
Public Wise Research Associate Ella Wind told me that the “persuadable defectors” tend to be younger, less white and lower-income, with many falling below the US household median income. MENA—Middle Eastern North African Americans and Muslim Americans—while a smaller proportion of the overall population, fell into this group at disproportionately higher rates.
“We saw there are a lot of people for whom there is some kind of personal tie,” she said. “People are part of identity groups, for example, that would give them a special kind of interest in particular in the Israel-Palestinian conflict.”
Wind added that the US has seen generational shifts, especially among Democrats, in terms of views on the war with increasing cohorts expressing more hesitation about the level of military aid America supplies to its closest ally in the region.
“It’s not really surprising the kind of reaction we've seen, especially with the campus protests and things like that, if you look at the overall trend and trajectory of the US-Israel relationship and US public opinion about that relationship.”
Public Wise found that the best way to invite Biden critics back into the fold is to appeal to their self-interests with a message centered on them and their loved ones, not politicians.
What is less likely to work? A “lesser of two evils” message, which received primarily negative feedback from respondents.
Stay tuned: This Sunday, I’ll publish the full Q&A from my interview with Christina and Ella on the poll findings. The two experts explain why they think the war in Gaza has resonated with young people and people of color so much, if the war will still be a salient issue by November and if the role of misinformation has warped people’s perceptions of the conflict.
New housing poll shows battleground voters want urgent words with progressive action
In other polling news, leaders from the Center for Popular Democracy and Right to the City released a poll today that shows housing affordability is a top concern for voters across the board and that working-class renters will be a pivotal constituency in the 2024 elections in battleground states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada.
The groups found that permanently affordable housing and rent stabilization initiatives aren’t only popular among Democrats in the battleground. Around 60 percent of Republicans polled said they would vote for a candidate that supports these positives. And 77 percent of renters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate that supports rent stabilization, an eight-percent over-index of the battleground population as a whole.
The poll also found progressive solutions aren’t enough. But when matched with urgent language over moderate or mild messages, battleground voters tend to take notice.
Case in point: Messages that described housing issues in America as a "crisis" or described modern rental prices as "too damn high" were on average more than 25 percentage points more favorable than messages that proposed more moderate solutions.
And while renters hold a significantly more favorable view of President Biden than former President Donald Trump, they are noticeably less enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election. This is due in part to the massive perceived gap between how little they hear politicians discuss the affordable housing crisis and rent—compared to issues like abortion, immigration and inflation—and how big of an impact the crisis has on their personal situation.
Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, told me last month that she and her colleagues are focused on advancing policies that will lower housing costs.
“We want to make sure that everybody who’s eligible for a voucher is able to get one. We want to make sure that we get rid of discrimination in housing and we have fair housing,” she said. “So we're working very, very hard. The president keeps a close eye. He’s in constant contact with the feds about it. And I’m hopeful that the indicators will be such that in the near future, we’ll be able to see the [Federal Reserve] bring down the interest rates.”
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, which has jurisdiction over federal housing policy, said that while congressional Democrats and the White House have been successful in lowering other costs of living to provide Americans with savings they can reinvest into keeping a roof over their heads—from capping the cost of prescription drugs and calling out corporations for price gouging.
“The data shows the ways in which we have certain bad actors in the space who have raised their prices in a way that doesn't that can't be justified,” he added. “So I think we have to remain vigilant while at the same time creating jobs and opportunity, which we've been doing for them.”
“An organic, breathing movement”: McBath reflects on on Gun Violence Awareness Month
It’s Gun Violence Awareness Month, so I caught up this week with Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.)—one of Congress’s fiercest gun safety advocates—for her sense of how the federal government has responded to the gun violence epidemic.
“We’ve made great progress,” McBath told me, pointing to the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that President Biden signed in 2022, representing the first meaningful gun safety law in three decades. “It’s slow progress, but it’s still great.”
The three-term congresswoman, who ran for elected office after her son Jordan Davis was murdered in a shooting at a Florida gas station in 2012, introduced the House companion of the GOSAFE Act, a bill Sen. Mark Heinrich (D-N.M.) introduced late last year, which would regulate firearms based on the lethality of their internal parts instead of their cosmetic features, which manufacturers can easily modify.
“This is an organic, breathing movement and there’s not just one piece of legislation that’ll solve this public health crisis,” McBath said. “And so I’m gonna live the rest of my life trying to find ways to continue to stop this epidemic.”
Despite the progress, gun violence continues to ravage communities.
At least 48 people were shot last weekend in four mass shootings in Ohio (25), Pennsylvania (9), Kentucky (6) and McBath’s home state of Georgia (8).
“The aftermath [of a shooting] is huge. It affects not just the victims and the families but the entire community because it’s not just the families that are traumatized, but the trauma extends to the community,” she said. “That individual who was once a vital human being is no longer there. And every time we lose people to gun violence, it just makes people within the community very, very uneasy. It’s re-traumatizing people over and over again. So it has a mental health element to it as well.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, who leads the Office of Gun Violence Prevention the White House established last September, participated in a conversation around the issue and senior administration officials discussed the steps the Biden administration is taking in the areas of hospital-based violence programs, firearm-risk screening and secure gun storage counseling, data and research and regional collaboration to accelerate progress in preventing gun violence.
The OVGP also hosted nearly 80 executives and leaders representing health systems and hospitals from across the country today at a first-ever summit on how to apply a public health approach to the crisis. A White House official said the participants discussed how heath systems and hospitals are working to implement and expand hospital-based violence intervention programs, engage in system-wide safe gun storage counseling to prevent suicide, and the collection of gun violence data.
On Friday, which is also Wear Orange Day in honor of the victims and survivors of gun violence, OGVP will convene 80 medical professionals to discuss the trauma and long-term impacts they witness firsthand due to the gun violence public health epidemic affecting their communities.
Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) introduced the Wear Orange Resolution earlier this week to support the designation of tomorrow as National Gun Violence Awareness Day and June as National Gun Violence Awareness Month.
The human impact of the ACP funding cliff
Last Friday was the final day 23 million households received any benefits from the Affordable Connectivity Program—the internet affordability program created through the bipartisan infrastructure law President Biden signed in 2021 to close the digital divide.
Geoffrey Starks, a commissioner at the Federal Communications Commision, which administers the ACP, told me he spent the last 60 days crisscrossing the country to hear stories from older Americans, single parents, small business owners and veterans about the impact of the program.
“I have had so many folks come up to me and say that they don't know what they're going to be able to do. They’ve worked long and hard to figure out how to make ends meet,” Starks said. “Coming up with $30 is like coming up with a million dollars for some of these households that really are vulnerable. And this is the program that has helped them get connected and sustain that connection.”
White House Director of Public Engagement Steven Benjamin told me the program was successful because it transcended geography.
“We’re talking about a lot of folks who’ve been depending on this in a very meaningful way. And this is not only urban, suburban or rural,” Benjamin said. “It’s all of the above, tribal as well. It’s all across every state in this country. This is having a meaningful effect in a positive way in people’s lives and because of opposition in the Republican House, we’re losing this.”
The Biden administration announced last week that it secured commitments from over a dozen internet providers to continue offering high-speed internet plans for eligible households through the end of the year. Even with these commitments though, up to 13 million households will hang in the balance and could see their service interrupted at a time when families are still struggling to make ends meet.
Under the ACP, low-income households received discounts of up to $30/month to get internet service. Households on tribal lands received up to $75/month off their service. Eligible households also received a one-time discount of up to $100 to purchase a laptop, desktop computer or tablet from participating providers.
These subsidies have enabled people and families to participate in school and work, access health care, connect with loved ones and express their creativity—activities that are stressful to perform without reliable, high-speed internet.
President Biden requested $6 billion last October to extend funding through the end of the year. And while there’s broad bipartisan support for bills led by Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), House Republican leadership has shown little interest in bringing the bill to the floor. (Clarke told me last week the effort she’s leading to bypass House GOP leadership and force a vote through a discharge petition is still alive.)
But with few remaining legislative vehicles to attach an ACP extension to and a dwindling congressional calendar, House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) conceded to me that the program’s ultimate fate may hinge on if his party wins back the chamber this November. But the number-three House Democrat added that voters can expect House Democrats to champion investments like the ACP if they win back the majority this fall.
“Our case to the American people might have to wait until November, to be honest with you, but we do it from the position of telling the American people, ‘Trust us,’” he said. “We have ideas and solutions on how to make investments in our communities, evidenced by the good work that we did. And just because House Republicans refused to bring up the ability to fund those measures and to continue those measures, please don't give up on the idea that we can do more, that we can do better to connect our communities.”
A senior administration told me the White House still has hope for the ACP’s revival.
“I think it is really powered by the reality of the lived experience of millions of those folks who are making sure that their voices are heard,” the official said. “Time will tell if that is enough. But the President is listening to those folks. He wants to help those folks and that is why he’s reiterating his call to Congress to get this done.”
Once Upon a Hill on the radio
I joined the Joan Esposito radio show on the progressive radio station WCPT 820AM in Chicago last week to discuss the Trump verdict in his hush-money trial and all things Congress, including the different leadership styles of current top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), AOC’s rapid evolution from an idealistic disruptor to a savvy politico, and what I’m watching on the Hill ahead of the summer nominating conventions. Listen to the full segment.
And ICYMI, be sure to catch up on my recent COURIER columns, including a republished version of my report on the failed vote to advance a birth-control bill in the Senate. Last week, I wrote the push to reshape the gender politics of Maryland’s all-male congressional delegation. And the week before that, I wrote about Georgia Democrat Hank Johnson’s new task force to restore balance and accountability to the Supreme Court.
OK, that’s all I’ve got for now. Help me refill my notebook by sending me tips and ideas to michael@onceuponahill.com or just reply to this email. I’ve got Signal, Telegram and WhatsApp if you need to be discreet.