Illinois Dems to settle Durbin seat, key House fights
Illinois Democrats head to the polls in a high-stakes primary that will decide Dick Durbin’s successor and reshape the House bench amid fights over money, identity and influence.
TODAY IN CONGRESS
👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for waking up to Congress Nerd Sunrise. Get in touch: michael@onceuponahill.com.
Illinois Democrats head to the polls today in what is effectively the decisive contest for a rare open Senate seat—and a primary that has scrambled the state’s political order from Chicago to Capitol Hill.
The race to replace former Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.)—the first open contest for the seat in decades—has drawn a crowded field, but the final stretch has crystallized into a three-way fight between Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, Rep. Robin Kelly, and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, with outside spending, crossfire ads, and national attention flooding the state.
Because Illinois is a deep-blue state, the Democratic nominee will enter the general election as the clear favorite, raising the stakes of today’s outcome far beyond a typical primary. The contest has also become a proxy battle over influence inside the party: Stratton has benefited from the backing of Gov. JB Pritzker, whose political operation and financial muscle have helped elevate her as a leading contender, while Krishnamoorthi has leaned on a massive fundraising advantage and Kelly has positioned herself as an experienced legislator above the fray.
The closing days have underscored how volatile the race remains. Allies of Krishnamoorthi have spent heavily in ways that could siphon support from Stratton, while Kelly has attempted to capitalize on the crossfire between her rivals to consolidate late-breaking voters.
But the primary is not just a contest over money and momentum. It is also shaped by questions of representation and coalition politics. Both Stratton and Kelly, two prominent Black women with distinct bases of support, have made history a central undercurrent of the race in a state that has never elected a Black woman to the Senate. That dynamic has created friction among Democratic leaders and aligned groups, with some viewing Pritzker’s intervention on Stratton’s behalf as an attempt to steer the outcome of a race that carries symbolic and political weight for the party’s Black electorate. Over the weekend, the late Rev. Jesse Jackson’s purported posthumous endorsement of Stratton briefly roiled the race before his family publicly walked it back, saying his primary preferences were never finalized and the release of a sample ballot claiming his backing was unauthorized.
The Senate fight is also cascading down the ballot. Kelly’s decision to run has opened up Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District, setting off a competitive Democratic primary that includes local officials and former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., turning a safe blue seat into a test of Chicago-area political networks and name recognition.
And the ripple effects extend further: Krishnamoorthi’s candidacy has created movement in the 8th District, while a broader reshuffling across the ballot reflects what one observer described as a “seismic shift” in Illinois Democratic politics following Durbin’s retirement.
Meanwhile, IL-07 is a wide-open, old-school Chicago-machine-versus-insurgent-progressive fight triggered by the retirement of longtime Rep. Danny Davis. The race has drawn more than a dozen candidates, including state Rep. La Shawn Ford (backed by Davis), Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, progressive organizer Kina Collins, and a crowded field of local officials and newcomers. The district’s geographic and racial diversity—from the West Side to the western suburbs—has turned the primary into a test of coalition-building across Black political leadership, progressive activists, and remnants of the city’s traditional political infrastructure.
IL-09 is a battle with national ideological stakes, featuring roughly 15 Democrats competing to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky in a safely blue, North Shore–anchored seat. The top tier includes Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, state Sen. Laura Fine, and a mix of progressive and institutional candidates, with outside spending—particularly from pro-Israel aligned groups—emerging as a defining undercurrent in the race. The contest has become a proxy for broader Democratic tensions on foreign policy, money in politics, and generational change within a reliably liberal district.
HAPPENINGS
All times Eastern.
The House is in at 10 a.m. and will vote at 3 p.m. on two suspension bills and a rule to open debate on immigration legislation.
The Senate is in at 10 a.m. and will vote at 11:45 a.m. to limit debate on the nomination of Anna St. John to be U.S. District Judge for the Eastern District of Louisiana. The Senate will recess after the vote for weekly party lunches until 2:15 p.m., when the Senate will vote to confirm the St. John nomination. Additional votes are possible during today’s session.
The House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on the national security risks of Chinese-owned artificial intelligence companies, such as DeepSeek and United Robotics.
The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on updating America’s financial privacy framework for the 21st century.
The House Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on U.S. military posture and national security challenges in North and South America.
The House Foreign Affairs Committee will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on reforming America’s defense sales.
The House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on advancing America’s interests at the World Trade Organization’s 14th Ministerial Conference.
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on Winter Storm Fern lessons.
The House Budget Committee will hold a hearing at 10:15 a.m. on the Congressional Budget Office’s budget and economic outlook.
The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Legislative Branch will hold a budget hearing at 10:15 a.m. on the U.S. Capitol Police.
The House Education and Workforce Committee will hold a markup at 10:15 a.m. on bills to reform the Truman Scholarship Foundation, tighten oversight of federal student aid and FAFSA verification, promote evidence-based reading instruction, restrict what Republicans call the sexualization of children in schools, and curb ERISA-related litigation.
The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on China’s theft of U.S. innovation.
The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies will hold an oversight hearing at 10:30 a.m. with National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya.
The House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Intelligence Subcommittee will hold a hearing at 2 p.m. on waste, fraud and abuse in foreign assistance.
The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Legislative Branch will hold a hearing at 2 p.m. on the budget for the House.
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will hold a hearing at 2 p.m. on the role of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid in combating fraud within the programs.
House Republicans will hold their weekly conference meeting at 9 a.m. House Democrats will meet at 2 p.m.
House Republican leadership will hold a post-meeting press conference at 10 a.m. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and Vice Chair Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) will hold a post-meeting press conference at 10:45 a.m.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) will hold a press conference at 10:30 a.m. on a bill to ban prediction markets.
Congressional Dads Caucus Chair Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) and House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) will hold a press conference at 11:45 a.m. on caregiving affordability.
Speaker Johnson will host President Trump and Taoiseach Micheál Martin for the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon at 12 p.m. They will participate in a departure ceremony photo opportunity at 1:30 p.m. following the event.
President Trump will participate in a greeting with Taoiseach Martin at 10:45 a.m., a bilateral meeting at 11 a.m., a greeting with Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland Emma Little-Pengelly at 5 p.m. and a greeting with Martin at 5:05 p.m., and the Shamrock Bowl presentation at 5:20 p.m.
IN THE KNOW
— Senate Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) referred Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to the Justice Department for potential perjury and false statements tied to her congressional testimony earlier this month. In a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi, the Democrats cited possible violations of federal law and pointed to statements on court orders, detention practices and contracting, while noting a five-year statute of limitations.
— Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) is pressing major tech and AI companies to adopt stronger safeguards against deepfakes and manipulated media ahead of the 2026 midterms. In a letter to firms including OpenAI, Meta and Google, Warner warns that evolving generative AI tools pose growing risks to election integrity and urges new standards for transparency, detection and rapid response.
— House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) and panel Democrats are demanding testimony from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over the administration’s handling of the Iran war. Democrats say Congress needs answers on the diplomatic strategy, decision-making and planning behind the conflict, pressing for public hearings after the administration declined to make Witkoff and Kushner available.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
“Marjorie Taylor Greene was never fringe” by Sarah Jones: “The Georgia congresswoman is out of office. Her conspiracies continue to define her party.”
“Behind Mamdani’s smile, a politician who can be a ruthless operator” by Nicholas Fandos and Sally Goldenberg: “Mayor Zohran Mamdani, while charming in public, has thrown sharp elbows in private as he pushes his political brand and agenda among fellow Democrats.”
“100 video calls per day: Models are applying to be the face of AI scams” by Matt Burgess: “Dozens of telegram channels reviewed by WIRED include job listings for ‘AI face models.’ The (mostly) women who land these gigs are likely being used to dupe victims out of their money.”