What House Democrats saw in the 2026 polling this morning
Plus: Senate Democrats on the Epstein files, Hakeem Jeffries on Susie Wiles and House Republican moderates fight for a show vote on extending the ACA premium tax credits.
I was nervous when I woke up this morning and remembered House Democrats were holding their weekly caucus meeting up the street from the Capitol at the Democratic National Committee. This meant the usual stakeout in the basement hallway would move to outside the DNC while members came together within the warm confines of the building.
It’s been teeth-chattering cold in the nation’s capital. Yesterday, sustained winds were strong enough that the “feels like” temperature dipped into the high teens to low 20s, especially in the morning and evening hours, even though the actual low was in the upper 20s.
Thankfully, this morning was a different story: It felt warmer than it actually was since the sun was up and the winds had eased. Still, a member offered to let me sit in their minivan to stay warm—a first for me in all my time covering Capitol Hill. As generous as the offer is, I chuckled and politely declined.
Many of you know my journalism career was rooted in the fashion industry, so I’m always thrilled to return to my essence. As members were trickling in, I spotted Rep. SHARICE DAVIDS (D-Kan.) in a pair of ANGEL REESE 1s in the Charm City colorway.
Davids, who is the first openly LGBTQ+ Native American elected to Congress, the first elected to Congress from the Jayhawk State and one of the first two Native American women elected to Congress, let me snap a pic as she left the meeting.
And it warmed the heart within my freezing body when she told me she also owned a pair of AJA WILSON’s A’Ones in the Pink Aura colorway.
Back to that meeting: I’m told members were presented with polling showing a 13% swing among independent voters against Trump, driven by the perception that the president is only helping himself and the billionaire class.
For what it’s worth, a double-digit shift among independents suggests the Trump coalition isn’t locked in the way it sometimes appears. These voters aren’t reacting to ideology or process; they’re reacting to perceived self-dealing. That’s important because independents tend to disengage or split late. When they move this early, it’s usually in response to something visceral—not abstract.
But to be clear, polling shown to caucuses is often directional, not predictive. A significant swing today is not a guarantee one year out. But it does tell you where persuasion lives and which kind of argument resonates with voters who actually decide midterms.
These meetings are also opportunities for leadership to implore rank-and-file members to pay their DCCC dues. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.) used the carrot approach instead of a stick: A source in the room confirmed the Brooklyn Democrat would match dollar-for-dollar up to $500,000 in member contributions made between today and the end of the year, a detail Ally Mutnick at Punchbowl News had first.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair SUZAN DELBENE (D-Wash.) projected confidence to reporters at a post-meeting press conference that the DCCC was on track to win back the majority, as proven by the committee expanding the map of offensive opportunities last week.
But the nation is awaiting whether the Supreme Court will overturn Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in time to clear the way for states to redraw 2026 congressional maps without having to protect minority voters’ ability to elect candidates of their choice. This would make it easier for partisan majorities to weaken or eliminate minority-opportunity districts under the guise of race-neutral line-drawing. It could also decimate the Congressional Black Caucus, which is at its highest membership in its history.
She said that, just as her team is monitoring the GOP’s efforts to gerrymander Democrats out of seats in red states, they would continue to update their map on any changes resulting from the looming SCOTUS decision.
“How soon that will be or how late that will be will help us understand what impact it might have,” DelBene said. “But we understand we could hear any time on that.”