Can Johnson hold on to his gavel?
The speaker hopes the support of President-elect Donald Trump and a lack of a viable alternative will be enough to hold onto power—without the multiple embarrassing ballots it took his predecessor.
First Things First
👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! Welcome back to Once Upon a Hill and Happy New Year. I enjoyed a few days off to take my mom to a White House holiday reception, watch the Beyoncé Bowl at least a dozen times and catch up on some much-needed rest because this year is about to be a doozy.
In related news, shoutout to the incomparable Phil Lewis for naming me one of the journalists to watch in 2025. Phil is one of my favorite people and a trustworthy information source for hundreds of thousands of online news consumers. I couldn’t be prouder to be in the phenomenal companies of some incredibly talented colleagues.
However, you’re here for confessional politics, so here’s what you should know in this special evening edition: Congress will meet tomorrow at noon for the House and Senate to swear in its members. The House will need to elect a speaker before it conducts any official business, as you’ll read about below. After all the formalities are handled, Republicans will officially control both chambers of Congress for the first time since the first Trump administration.
In tonight’s issue, news and notes on the federal investigation into Wednesday morning's horrific terrorist attack in New Orleans, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s choice for Democratic National Committee chair, the committee assignment that could help Sen. Jon Ossoff defend his seat in 2026 and the award President Joe Biden bestowed upon the faces of the House Jan. 6 Committee just days before the anniversary of the insurrection.
But let’s start with a preview of tomorrow’s House speaker election where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) hopes the support of President-elect Donald Trump and a lack of a viable alternative will be enough to hold onto power.
The Evening Report
Speaker Johnson has publicly expressed confidence that his members will keep the top gavel in his hands tomorrow. But privately, he’s been working the phones to shore up support and avoid the 15-ballot calamity his predecessor Kevin McCarthy endured two Januarys ago.
Johnson’s math
The Louisiana Republican is facing the same challenges as McCarthy though: an unfavorable whip count due to a spider-web-thin majority led by a handful of House conservatives hellbent on governing with an ideological purity their slim margins can’t guarantee.
For all the talk the morning after the election about a clear mandate, the reality is Johnson was already slated to start the new Congress with fewer members than the Republican Conference started the last with due to Democratic pickups. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) resigned his seat after Trump nominated the MAGA firebrand to be his attorney general to avoid the release of a damning ethics report, further shrinking Johnson’s margin. (Gaetz withdrew his name from AG consideration and the Ethics panel published its findings anyway.) Thomas Massie, a Republican Kentucky congressman, opposes Johnson’s candidacy with several more skeptics undecided about how they’ll ultimately vote.
The speaker’s best hope is to flip some of those undecideds or convince them to vote present because Democrats are expected to unanimously nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to be speaker as they did for all 15 ballots two years ago. Jeffries will reportedly be backed by full attendance, but a senior House Democratic aide said leadership will have a better sense of their own numbers tomorrow.
In the meantime, the Brooklynite hasn’t taken his members’ support for granted.
“In terms of my own nomination, I’m just trying hard to get to 215 [votes],” he told reporters last month referencing the number of members in his caucus—up three members from the beginning of last Congress.
The Trump factor
From the moment Johnson improbably ascended to the speakership, he has bear-hugged and not let go. (In fact, Johnson was at Mar-a-Lago on New Year’s Day huddling with the incoming president.) This approach paid off with a vote of confidence from Trump on Monday.
“Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man,” he said. “He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement.”
The president-elect’s support is in his self-interest. Trump promised on the campaign trail to immediately establish a mass deportation operation, undo dozens of Biden-era regulations and rid the federal bureaucracy of all things woke, so a protracted speaker’s election filled with chaos is politically perilous to Trump.
His endorsement is also a reflection of the political reality: Johnson is likely the only Republican who can notch the votes. As was the case after McCarthy’s removal, all of the alternatives floated—from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) to House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) to House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)—have flaws within the conference that would cost them as many or more votes as Johnson is currently at risk of losing. (What about Byron Donalds, you ask? He’s got his sights set on Florida's governor’s mansion next year.)
Look for House conservatives to seek concessions from Johnson for their votes. But just because they demand them doesn’t mean they’ll get them.
“Republicans have set a very low bar,” a House Democrat told me earlier. “I suspect they will try to manage their crazy a bit better this time.”
The process
So how will all of this work tomorrow?
The vote will occur via roll call where members will state aloud the name of their preferred candidate. The House clerk will preside and appoint several members as tellers to tally the votes.
While Johnson and Jeffries were elected during their organizational meetings last month, other names may also be placed in nomination on the floor. But members are free to vote for anyone. And although the Constitution does not require the Speaker to be a member of the House, all previous speakers have been. People not serving in the House have received votes before.
Johnson will need to win a majority of votes cast by Republicans. (This doesn’t mean he needs a majority of the full House membership; some GOP members may answer present while others may choose not to vote, a less likely upshot.
If he fails to receive a majority of votes cast as expected, balloting continues. In subsequent ballots, members may still vote for anyone.
In 14 previous speaker elections, more than one ballot was required. The last time this happened was in 1923. In 1859, more than nine ballots were required to elect a speaker. Four years earlier, a record 133 ballots were required to elect a speaker.
The consequences of a speakerless Congress
Beyond the politics for Johnson, Trump and House Republicans, several procedural snags will emerge in the institution without a speaker.
For starters, Congress can’t pass bills or adopt resolutions—including the GOP rules package that determines how business is conducted in the chamber and ensures order during debates and votes (more on that below, btw…)—until the House elects a speaker.
Incoming members cannot set up their constituent services or access their security clearances, an unnecessary delay for representatives who are standing up a district office for the first time or in roles that require classified briefings on events like the New Orleans terrorist attacks.
The Senate president pro tempore skips the speaker in the presidential line of succession after Vice President Kamala Harris. (This will be Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) when the Senate is officially sworn in.)
When it comes to local matters, the District of Columbia is prohibited under a 1973 federal law from enacting any laws since district legislation is subject to a process, including a congressional review period, before becoming law.
About that rules package…
Among the proposals in the 36-page rules package House Republicans introduced on Wednesday is a reform to the motion to vacate the chair, which would increase the threshold for the House to remove the speaker from one member to nine members. The change resulted from an agreement between the supposedly moderate Main Street Caucus and the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus late last year.
But the proposed change would also require for the first time in US history that the majority party to support an attempt to remove the speaker before it is considered privileged, a threshold that orders the resolution must be put to a floor vote within two legislative days after a member introduces it.
Rep. Jim McGovern (Mass.), the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee, called the reform alarming in a statement and said it dismisses the desire from Americans for both parties to work together to solve problems.
“This makes it clear that they have no intention of working together to find common ground,” McGovern said. “Instead of electing a Speaker of the House, they decided to elect a Speaker of the Republican Conference—held hostage by their most extreme members.”
Eight Republicans and all House Democrats voted to remove Kevin McCarthy from the speakership in 2023; 11 Republicans were in favor of booting Speaker Johnson last year, but were blocked by Democrats who saved Johnson after he brought legislation to provide billions of dollars in Ukraine aid to a vote.
If adopted, the rules package would also rename the Oversight and Accountability Committee to Oversight and Government Reform, eliminate the Diversity and Inclusion office and allow members to electronically vote in committees.
The resolution also features a dozen proposed bills targeting the LGBTQ+ community, restricting access to abortion care, cracking down on unlawful immigration and threatening to worsen the climate crisis. It also includes measures related to Israel, China, voting rights and the fentanyl epidemic.
McGovern called the bills in the package the clearest window to date into the House GOP’s agenda, one devoid of policies to help workers, bring down grocery prices, lower rent, inflation and healthcare costs, or build more affordable housing.
Beyond the substance, the bills bypass scrutiny from the committees of jurisdiction and prohibit amendments from members of either party, a departure of the openness and transparency rank-and-file Republicans claim their opposition to Johnson is intended to inspire.
“The American people did not vote for whatever the hell this is,” McGovern said. “And you better believe that Democrats will not let Republicans turn the House of Representatives into a rubber stamp for their extreme policies.”
Two years ago
As I mentioned, the 2023 speaker election required 15 ballots over three days, the longest in more than 160 years. On the first 14 ballots, McCarthy failed to secure a majority. Initially, Jim Jordan served as the alternative Republican nominee, but Byron Donalds replaced him starting on the fourth ballot. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) voted “present” from the fourth to the eleventh ballots, lowering the required threshold to 217 votes. (Spartz told reporters after a meeting with Johnson in his suite that she will decide whether to support him tomorrow.)
The House adjourned multiple times to provide McCarthy’s supporters space and time to negotiate with holdouts. On the fifteenth ballot, four members voted present to reduce the threshold and secure the speakership for McCarthy, which he held for 10 months before he was removed. Besides McCarthy and Jeffries, nine other people received at least one vote or expressed interest in serving as speaker.
Speaker Johnson granted C-SPAN permission to have TV cameras controlled by the network inside the chamber for the speaker election. It will have the same camera positions as previous years, including 2023—when they captured member huddles and candid reactions viewers usually don’t see—if you’re interested in viewing the goings-on in real-time.
In the Know
New Orleans latest
The FBI has determined the Army veteran who drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans on New Year’s Day morning.
The House Homeland Security Committee was briefed by an FBI official this morning about its investigation. Members were told the attacker was not on any federal government watchlists at the time of the attack. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) called on incoming Senate Homeland Security Committee Chair Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on Wednesday to demand the immediate public testimony of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and FBI Director Christopher Wray to provide answers on the attack
President Biden met with Vice President Harris and members of his homeland security team in the Situation Room this afternoon to receive an update on the investigation into the attack.
Law enforcement also provided the president with an update on the investigation into the truck explosion in Las Vegas on Wednesday when a Tesla Cybertruck containing firework mortars and gas canisters blew up outside the main entrance of a Trump Hotel located in the city. Seven people were injured and the driver died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head. President Biden reiterated law enforcement’s belief that the explosion was unrelated to the attack in New Orleans.
After he drove into people along a three-block stretch, the driver exited the truck and engaged in a shoot-out until he was fatally shot. Including the driver, 15 people were killed and at least 35 others were injured—including two police officers who were shot. Weapons, a possible IED, and additional potential explosive devices were discovered in the vehicle and investigators found an ISIS flag on the back of the truck. The incident is being investigated as a terrorist attack.
The French Quarter reopened today after local officials cleaned the area. The Allstate Sugar Bowl, between Notre Dame and Georgia, in the College Football Playoff, was postponed from last night to this afternoon. The Superdome held a moment of silence ahead of the kickoff to honor the victims of the attack, followed by the national anthem. The game is ongoing.
Schumer endorses Wickler as DNC chief
Democratic voters will receive a key signal on the direction of the national party when the Democratic National Committee elects its new chair at its winter meeting in Maryland next month.
Senate Majority Leader Schumer announced his pick for the position this morning: Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party.
Schumer cited Wikler’s skills as an organizer, fundraiser and communicator and the recent success of Wisconsin Democrats as reasons for his support.
“I have said since the day after the election that Democrats should view this moment as a challenge,” Schumer said. We must listen to the American people, learn from the results, and move forward stronger. That’s why I am enthusiastically supporting Ben to be the next Chair of the DNC.”
Wikler said Schumer’s endorsement proves the top Senate Democrat understands the stakes as the party attempts to recover from an election that saw the top of the ticket lose every swing state, Schumer return to minority leader, and Hakeem Jeffries fall short in his bid to become the first Black House Speaker.
“I appreciate his faith in me to lead our party forward to win—at every level of the ballot,” Wikler said of Schumer.
Wikler is also endorsed by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.), Reps. Gwen Moore (D-Wisc.) and Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.) and outgoing Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.).
The crowded field also includes Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Ken Martin, former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley, New York State Sen. James Skoufis, executive member of the Newton, Massachusetts Democratic City Committee Jason Paul, former Department of Homeland Security official Nate Snyder and nonprofit executive Robert Houton. Marianne Williamson, the two-time former Democratic presidential candidate, joined the race late last week and is currently the only woman candidate.
Sen. Klobuchar and Reps. Angie Craig, Betty McCollum and Dean Phillips endorse Martin. Sens. Ben Cardin, Chris Van Hollen, and Sen.-elect Alsobrooks support O'Malley.
Candidates must submit a nominating statement signed by 40 DNC members by Jan. 25 in order to qualify for the chair election. 225 of the 448 votes are needed to win.
Ossoff wins coveted spot on Senate Approps panel
Sen. Ossoff, arguably the most vulnerable Senate Democrat in the 2026 midterm cycle, lost his seat on the Judiciary Committee due to the half-dozen seats Dems lost last November. But the 37-year-old received a major consolation prize this morning: A coveted seat
on the Appropriations panel, which will empower him to prioritize federal resources for his state ahead of a fierce reelection campaign.
11 Senate Democrats will serve as ranking members on their panels: Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) on Agriculture, Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) on Banking, Martin Heinrich (N.M.) on Energy, Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.) on Environment and Public Works, Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) on Foreign Relations, Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) on Aging, Jeff Merkley (Ore.) on Budget, Maggie Hassan (N.H.) on Joint Economic, Alex Padilla (Calif.) on Rules, Ed Markey (Mass.) on Small Business and Richard Blumenthal (Conn.) on Veterans’ Affairs.
Four of the six new Senate Democrats—Andy Kim (N.J.), Ruben Gallego (Ariz.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (Del.) and Angela Alsobrooks (Md.)—were assigned to the Banking Committee, which oversees banks, federal monetary policy, public and private housing, urban development, mass transit and government contracts, among other related policy areas.
Kim will serve with Blunt Rochester on the Commerce panel and Gallego and Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) on Homeland Security. Slotkin also scored assignments on Armed Services and Agriculture and will work with Gallego on Veterans’ Affairs as well. (Gallego notched a spot on Energy too.) Adam Schiff (Calif.) will also serve on Agriculture plus the Judiciary and Small Business Committees.
Blunt Rochester and Alsobrooks—the first Black women to serve in the Senate simultaneously—will contribute their skills to the EPW and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committees. Alsobrooks was assigned to the Aging panel.
Thompson, Cheney receive presidential honor
President Joe Biden awarded Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) the Presidential Citizens Medal for their service as chair and vice chair of the Jan. 6 Committee, days before the anniversary of the insurrection in 2021. The medal is the second-highest civilian award.
Thompson is also the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee, a position he has held for nearly two decades.
Cheney was also a key surrogate for Kamala Harris’s unsuccessful presidential campaign.
Former Sens. Bill Bradley (R-N.Y.), Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Ted Kaufman (D-Del.) were among the former members of Congress who also received the award.
Dodd and President Biden served in the Senate together for decades. Kaufman was appointed to serve the remainder of Biden’s term after he was elected vice president in 2008.
Do you have questions about the new Congress or the incoming Trump presidency? Drop me a line at michael@onceuponahill.com or send me a message below to get in touch and I’ll report back with answers.
Today in Congress
The House and Senate did not meet.