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VIEW FROM THE HILL

When House Democrats unveiled their “Fighting for an Affordable America” messaging strategy in July, they tried to solve two problems: Members wanted a more coherent political message and voters wanted to know what Democrats stood for beyond opposing President Donald Trump.

But the thinking behind the strategy stretched back much further.

A senior House Democratic aide told me that leadership had understood the economic pressures on American families long before the summer rollout. Democratic victories in state and local elections following Trump’s 2024 win reinforced the party’s belief that voters were rejecting Republican policies. But the challenge was translating those concerns into a unified national argument as Democrats prepared to contest control of Congress.

With 12 days until the midterm elections, the party’s three-part framework of costs, care and corruption has taken on a more specific shape on the campaign trail. Rather than treating economic hardship and political corruption as separate concerns, Democratic strategists are increasingly presenting them as two sides of the same problem.

House Majority PAC, the principal super PAC supporting House Democrats, has been building that argument into its advertising since September.

HMP spokesperson CJ Warnke told me the group’s research dating to fall 2025 found that voters often blamed rising costs on politicians who seemed more interested in enriching themselves and their donors than helping ordinary Americans.

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VIEW FROM THE HILL

Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) is on a personal mission to get Pete Hegseth out of the Pentagon.

He made it absolutely clear this afternoon when I asked him about the prospect of impeaching the Defense Secretary during Congress’s lame-duck session and whether a change of leadership in the Pentagon would in any way alter the trajectory of President Trump’s war in Iran.

“Pete Hegseth is a special project of mine to make sure he doesn’t stay in the Pentagon any longer than he needs to,” Crow told me in a press call arranged by Defend America Action. “I will do everything I can to get him out of that position.”

Crow, a former Army Ranger with three combat tours, took Hegseth to task for what he said was the antithesis of military training. He described the secretary’s leadership as a threat to American service members and said he wouldn’t be satisfied until someone else led the Pentagon.

The comments come as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has indicated he intends to force a vote on Hegseth’s impeachment when the House reconvenes after the midterms. That would give members a chance to make their views on the Pentagon chief’s leadership public while the administration still grapples with the war’s escalating costs, American casualties and the state of military readiness.

Crow knows something about impeachment, having served as one of the House managers in Trump’s first impeachment trial in the Senate. He’s not committed to Massie’s approach, though, just that the objective should be removing Hegseth regardless of how you get there.

“Impeachment is a tool. It’s not an end in itself,” he said. “The objective in the case of Hegseth is to get him out of office.”

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 14 days.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

Maxine Waters isn’t waiting until after the midterm elections to defend her position atop the House Financial Services Committee.

The California Democrat’s allies have rallied 16 committee members behind a letter endorsing her continued leadership in the next Congress, an early sign of support as Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) challenges her for the top Democratic spot and Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) considers entering the race.

Waters’ response has made an impression beyond the committee.

“She’s not fucking around,” a Waters ally who is not on the Financial Services Committee told me. “She came in hot with the letter. Auntie Maxine is in it to win it.”

The letter, which I’ve seen, urges House Democrats to support Waters as the committee’s leader in the 120th Congress. Signatories span the party’s ideological spectrum, including Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.)—along with two of the letter’s organizers: Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).

Only three committee Democrats besides Waters are absent from the list of signatories: Casten, Foster and Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.).

The endorsement signals institutional support, though it remains unclear whether every signatory has committed to voting for Waters in a future leadership election. Neither Beatty nor Gottheimer responded to requests for comment about how the letter came together or whether members were asked to pledge their votes.

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VIEW FROM THE HILL

House Democrats have spent nearly a year preparing for potential interference in the midterm elections, identifying about 150 threats and narrowing the list to about 70 as they work with election lawyers, state officials and outside organizations to protect the results through the seating of the next Congress in January.

House Administration Ranking Member Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) told me this afternoon Democrats have been assessing potential threats since late last year, coordinating litigation and communications strategies with Democratic governors, attorneys general, secretaries of state and civil society organizations. The effort extends beyond Election Day to January 3, when the newly elected Congress is scheduled to convene.

“We started with about 150 threats. We’re down to about 70 because threats keep getting taken off the board,” Morelle said, citing successful challenges to President Trump’s efforts to restrict mail voting and the failure of congressional Republicans to enact new voting restrictions.

The preparations reflect Democrats’ concern that winning enough seats to reclaim the House majority on November 3 may not end their fight. Trump’s attempts to overturn his 2020 presidential defeat have raised questions about whether his administration or Republican allies could challenge vote counts, delay certification or interfere with the seating of Democratic lawmakers if Republicans lose control of Congress.

During a press call organized by the voting-rights group Try And Stop Us, Morelle described a three-phase effort covering the period before Election Day, the counting of ballots afterward and the organization of the new House. His committee has conducted exercises examining potential election-interference scenarios and how lawmakers and their partners would respond, according to a former House Democratic aide familiar with the planning.

The aide said Morelle has consistently focused on the period between Election Day and January 3, when disputes over congressional election results could fall within his committee’s jurisdiction.

Morelle said his team remains in daily communication with Democratic officials and outside partners, including election lawyers Norm Eisen and Marc Elias, who have participated in discussions about litigation and communications strategy.

One concrete component is an official House election observer program that has attracted a record 275 staff volunteers, according to Morelle. The volunteers will receive training before being deployed to competitive congressional districts, where they can observe ballot counting and recounts and document potential irregularities.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 19 days.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

If House Democrats win the majority next month, they could gain new power to advance workers’ rights and scrutinize the Trump administration’s labor policies, opening a governing opportunity that has received less attention than their plans to investigate the president.

The House Education and the Workforce Committee would be central to that effort, with jurisdiction over federal labor laws, workplace protections and education and workforce development. Democrats could use the panel to advance legislation that raises wages, strengthens collective bargaining and protects workers from unsafe conditions, while investigating the administration’s enforcement of existing labor laws.

Statements and policy materials provided to Once Upon a Hill by the offices of Ranking Member Bobby Scott (D-Va.) and Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.), both seeking to lead the committee in the next Congress, offer an early look at the legislative and oversight priorities Democrats could pursue if they regain the majority.

Their ability to enact sweeping reforms would remain limited by Republican control of the Senate and White House. But a House majority would give Democrats control over committee agendas, hearings and investigations, along with greater influence over government funding negotiations.

The agenda could extend well beyond the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, the long-standing Democratic proposal to strengthen workers’ ability to unionize and collectively bargain that passed the House but stalled in the Senate when Democrats last controlled Congress.

The Raise the Wage Act would gradually increase the federal minimum wage to $17 an hour, while the LET’S Protect Workers Act would strengthen penalties against employers that violate workplace safety, child labor and other federal labor protections. Both measures have been championed by Democrats on the Education and Workforce Committee.

Other potential priorities include stronger protections against worker misclassification, paid family and medical leave, federal workplace safety standards and policies supporting child care and other care-economy workers. Those proposals would require legislative negotiations and, in most cases, Republican cooperation to become law.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 20 days.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

House Democrats are already laying the groundwork for investigations into President Trump and his administration if they win control of the chamber next month, with the Judiciary and Oversight committees beginning to coordinate their work as party leaders prepare to make good on a central campaign promise.

Preparations include discussions among committee members, plans to expand investigative staffs, and a post-election retreat for Judiciary Democrats when lawmakers return for the lame-duck session, according to a person familiar with the planning. Oversight Ranking Member Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) recently gathered Democratic staffers in Long Beach—the southern California coastal city he represents—to prepare for a possible change in control.

The work is taking shape even as Democrats insist they aren’t taking victory for granted. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has made lowering everyday costs, expanding access to affordable health care, and rooting out government corruption the party's three pillars for the midterm message. If Democrats regain the majority in January, they’ll have to pursue those priorities at the same time.

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VIEW FROM THE HILL

Georgia Democrats are confident voters will have a free and fair election next month, even as they prepare for potential interference from the Trump administration in a state whose closely contested races could help determine the balance of power in Washington.

The assurance comes as early voting begins today in Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) is seeking reelection and both parties are competing for the governor’s mansion. Ossoff cast his ballot this morning as Democrats urged voters to turn out early amid concerns about the administration’s intentions.

Hakeem Jeffries has declared that Democrats have assembled the largest voter-protection effort in modern American history. In an Instagram post over the weekend, he offered an unequivocal prediction: “There will be a free and fair election.”

Four Democratic officials and voting-rights advocates endorsed that confidence during a Monday press call organized by the watchdog group Try and Stop Us. But their responses to questions from Once Upon a Hill made clear that the outcome Jeffries anticipates will require considerable preparation.

“Yes, we will have free and fair elections,” state Rep. Jasmine Clark, the Democratic nominee in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District, said. “But it is going to come with us preparing and doing what it takes to get us there.”

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 22 days.

Reminder: Tonight’s Congress Nerd Daily is free for all readers, replacing my usual Sunday edition, which didn’t publish yesterday in observance of Indigenous Peoples Day. My regular publishing schedule and paywall will resume tomorrow evening.

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Homeland Security Investigations agents searched the Washington-area home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) this morning in an extraordinary federal enforcement action involving a sitting Democratic lawmaker three weeks before the midterm elections. The Justice Department confirmed agents executed a judicially authorized search warrant but has not disclosed the investigation’s focus or announced charges. Vice President JD Vance said in May that the administration would investigate longstanding immigration-fraud allegations against Omar, which she has denied. There is no official confirmation that the search is connected to those allegations.

Omar said she was unharmed and accused the administration of attempting to “target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement.” She also used the raid to solicit political contributions in a fundraising email distributed by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, asking supporters to split donations between her campaign and the progressive group to help fight what she called President Donald Trump’s “abuse of power.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) called the raid “deeply disturbing,” demanded transparency and pledged accountability for what they described as an abuse of federal power. Other Democrats cast the search as part of a broader pattern of targeting Black women, citing the federal prosecution of Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) and cases involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and New York Attorney General Letitia James.

Speaking of McIver, she asked the full Third Circuit Court of Appeals on Friday to reconsider an August ruling that allowed federal criminal charges against her to proceed. The charges stem from a May 2025 confrontation with federal officers during an oversight visit to an ICE detention facility in Newark. McIver argues the prosecution threatens Congress’s constitutional oversight authority and could chill lawmakers’ scrutiny of the executive branch. “Members of Congress have a right to do oversight even, and especially, when the administration does not like what they find,” she said. McIver faces up to 17 years in prison if convicted.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

A disagreement over what Democrats owe their party—and what the party owes them—is exposing tensions between progressives and the Democratic establishment in the final weeks before the midterm elections.

The dispute has gained new significance since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Tennessee Democrat Justin J. Pearson to its Red to Blue program last week, after progressives called for greater support of candidates aligned with their wing of the party. The designation came as some Democrats have privately expressed frustration with colleagues who expect institutional support but haven’t fulfilled their financial obligations to the committee.

“We should pay dues. Some of the far-left progressives don’t pay, and now that Pearson has been added, it’s like, see, that’s what dues are for,” one Democratic lawmaker told me. “I personally don’t think people should get anything if they expect others to do the heavy lifting.”

The lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal party dynamics, also questioned whether some progressives were committed to the party’s broader success, arguing that their priorities focused more on gaining influence within the Democratic coalition than on building it.

But the DCCC’s own financial records paint a more complicated picture.

According to a copy of the committee’s August dues report obtained by Once Upon a Hill, Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) had contributed $265,000 toward a $260,000 goal, while former chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) had paid $192,500 toward a $190,000 target. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) had contributed $280,000 toward her $275,000 obligation.

Other prominent progressives were considerably further behind. Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Summer Lee (D-Pa.) had made no dues payments toward their respective goals as of August, while Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) had paid $100,000 of her $190,000 obligation.

The figures scramble any suggestion that progressives are uniformly unwilling to support the party’s campaign operation. They also don’t establish why individual members have fallen short or whether additional payments have been made since August.

When asked about the issue last month, Jeffries pushed back on the characterization of a dues crisis, saying the DCCC had broken records for member contributions over the previous two election cycles.

The top House Democrat also emphasized that members defending competitive seats are not expected to pay dues because their responsibility is to hold their districts. That includes several members of the Congressional Black Caucus, whose representation has expanded into districts where Black voters are not the majority.

He pointed to the DCCC’s partnership with the CBC’s political arm as part of the effort to grow Black representation in the House.

Jeffries was also asked about the lack of Black candidates from Red to Blue, which he largely attributed to the primary process and the limited number of candidates who entered competitive races.

“There are a couple of emerging opportunities in places throughout the South that we’re closely monitoring,” he said.

Five days later, the DCCC added Pearson and Arkansas Democrat Chris Jones to Red to Blue, making them the first two Black candidates selected for the program this cycle.

In announcing Pearson’s selection, DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) accused Tennessee Republicans of attempting to silence Black voters through redistricting and praised Pearson as a proven advocate for his community.

I’m told the DCCC and Pearson’s campaign have worked closely since the primary and his addition to Red to Blue reflects the strength of his candidacy. The committee also considers input from outside groups and talks with campaigns before making such decisions, though it remains unclear how much progressive advocacy influenced Pearson’s selection.

The DCCC continues to see opportunities to compete in Republican-held districts and views member dues as an important resource for those efforts, especially as the election approaches.

The competing perspectives underscore a larger disagreement within the Democratic coalition. Some members see paying dues as a fundamental obligation to the party’s collective electoral effort, while progressive advocates have pushed the campaign committee to recognize and invest in candidates who represent their political priorities.

But the committee’s financial records suggest the dividing line isn’t as simple as progressives demanding support and establishment Democrats paying for it. The question is whether those disagreements over money, influence and institutional responsibility can be reconciled as Democrats approach Election Day.

Trump returns to Ohio to stump for Husted: President Trump will rally in Youngstown this evening for Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of the races that could determine control of the chamber. It will be Trump’s second Ohio campaign stop in 10 days, after Vice President Vance visited the state last week. Youngstown’s industrial working-class voters helped fuel Trump’s political rise, but Brown is trying to reclaim some of that support amid concerns about affordability, manufacturing jobs and the expansion of AI data centers. Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy is also expected to attend.

Craig to campaign for Flanagan after bruising primary: Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) will campaign this Saturday alongside Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who defeated her in Minnesota’s bitterly contested Democratic Senate primary in August. The race exposed divisions between the party’s moderate and progressive wings, particularly over immigration enforcement, with Flanagan attacking Craig’s vote for the Laken Riley Act. Now Craig is helping her former rival mobilize voters in the final weeks against Republican Michele Tafoya. The two will kick off a weekend of door-knocking in Craig’s suburban congressional district, where Flanagan’s campaign says Democrats have knocked on more than 1.9 million doors statewide this year.

Bipartisan senators challenge legality of Trump’s Russian diesel deal: Seven senators, including four Republicans, accused President Trump of violating a 2022 law banning Russian energy imports after his administration authorized Russian diesel shipments to ease soaring fuel prices. The group, led by Senate Foreign Relations Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), said the administration failed to consult Congress or provide the justification required by law. Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and John Curtis (Utah) joined Democrats Richard Blumenthal (Conn.) and Ron Wyden (Ore.) in demanding Trump reverse course. “The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians,” they said.

🔓 This edition is free. But if you want Once Upon a Hill in your inbox each evening, upgrade your subscription for full access to every edition and the complete archive. Whether you’re taking the votes, writing the bills, running the campaigns, shaping the message or trying to influence any of the above, Congress Nerd Daily helps you see around corners before everyone else catches up.

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IN THE KNOW

— U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes ordered a 24-hour halt to tree removal at East Potomac Golf Course following a contentious hearing today. Approximately 500 trees were removed over the weekend despite her earlier instructions that the administration provide advance notice of major construction activity. National Park Service officials said the work followed a 2019 restoration plan predating Trump’s proposed renovation, but Reyes sharply criticized the Justice Department for failing to notify the court and said the temporary halt could be extended to 14 days. Read the AP’s courtroom reporting »

— Two taxpayer-funded advertisements promoting President Trump aired repeatedly after a federal judge’s Sunday evening deadline. The White House said the Department of Homeland Security did not receive the order in time to cancel the placements. Judge Jennifer Rochon blocked further spending from a $20 million DHS advertising purchase, finding challengers likely to succeed in arguing the campaign exceeded congressional appropriations and violated propaganda restrictions. Read more from the Washington Post » … Read Judge Rochon’s court order »

— A new analysis of preliminary USDA data finds 19.8 million households received SNAP benefits in June

, nearly 12% fewer than a year earlier. Arizona recorded a 49% decline in participating households, followed by Nevada at 28% and Oklahoma at 21%. Florida had the largest numerical drop, exceeding 293,000 households. Republicans’ 2025 reconciliation law expanded work requirements to adults ages 55–64 and tightened eligibility. States also began covering 75% of administrative costs on Oct. 1, with additional benefit-cost obligations approaching. The law cannot be blamed entirely for the enrollment decline. Read more from WLWT News 5 »

📬 The best stories often start with a conversation. If you’ve got insight, context or something others are missing, my inbox is open. Send me tips, scoops or just say hi: michael@onceuponahill.com.

READ ALL ABOUT IT

“Donald Trump after the midterms” by David Remnick: “If the coming election does result in a blue wave, Trump will be faced with the fact of his diminishment. The rest of us will be faced with the wreckage.”

“What Hasan Piker believes” by Jonathan Chait: “He’s right to complain that a few provocative quotes do not capture his worldview.”

“Far-right election groups are now targeting nursing homes” by David Gilbert: “Inspired by new guidance from the Trump administration, right-wing election groups are targeting nursing homes, baselessly claiming that left-wing groups are stealing residents’ votes.”

👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 26 days.

Programming note: In observance of Indigenous Peoples Day on Monday, Once Upon a Hill won’t publish Congress Nerd Sunday. Publication will resume on Monday evening. In place of the usual free Sunday edition, Monday’s Daily newsletter will be free for all readers. Have a wonderful weekend!

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Isaias, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, is expected to strengthen before making landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late tomorrow or early Saturday, with Alabama and the Florida Panhandle facing significant risks.

Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph earlier today, and forecasters warned of life-threatening storm surge up to seven feet, heavy rainfall, flash flooding and possible tornadoes. Coastal communities are preparing for the storm as offshore energy operators curtail production.

As of yesterday, about a quarter of Gulf oil production had already been shut down, a disruption that threatens further fuel-price pressure amid the Iran war. The National Hurricane Center⁠ will continue updating its forecasts as landfall approaches.

In other news, U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly this afternoon extended his temporary restraining order against the White House’s ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico through next Tuesday, when he expects to rule on a preliminary injunction.

He appeared skeptical of the administration’s defense of its ban on CNN⁠, MS NOW⁠ and POLITICO⁠ and questioned whether the administration’s explanations could be reconciled with Trump’s public statements and whether officials had established clear standards for revoking press credentials.

Justice Department attorneys maintained that national security and journalistic conduct justified the restrictions. Attorneys for the outlets argued Trump explicitly linked their exclusion to unfavorable coverage.

VIEW FROM THE TRAIL

BROOKLYN, N.Y. — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) returned to his Brooklyn roots this afternoon to make the case for a Democratic House majority, delivering a familiar economic message from a state office building named for Shirley Chisholm, the trailblazing congresswoman who once represented much of the same community.

Jeffries invoked Chisholm’s commitment to making life more affordable for working families before launching into a familiar critique of President Donald Trump’s economic record. He blamed Republican policies for higher prices, rising health care costs and economic fallout from the war in Iran, presenting House Democrats as the alternative for Americans struggling to afford groceries, gas, housing and medical care.

The setting gave a local dimension to the national argument Jeffries has been making for months. But the Brooklyn appearance was also a brief stop between campaign swings as the Democratic leader works to convert his party’s political momentum into a House majority on November 3.

Jeffries, who campaigned in California last weekend, is expected to travel to New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas and the Midwest in the coming days, with another possible trip to California.

The itinerary is part of what Jeffries has repeatedly described as running through the tape, a commitment to taking nothing for granted even as Democrats approach Election Day with growing confidence about their prospects.

Asked what that means in practice with 26 days remaining, Jeffries pointed to two priorities: protecting Democratic incumbents in competitive districts and supporting candidates positioned to flip Republican-held seats.

“We’re going to continue to be there for all of our battle-tested frontline incumbent members who remain in challenging seats all across the country,” he said, emphasizing the need to ensure they have the resources to communicate their affordability message.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 27 days.

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Today marks three years since Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages in the deadliest day in the country’s history. The attack set off a war that has reshaped the Middle East and devastated Gaza, where more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the territory’s Health Ministry, and much of the population remains displaced. As families and communities mark the anniversary, I’m remembering the lives lost, the survivors still carrying the trauma of that day and the civilians who have endured the staggering human cost of the years since.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

Congressional Democrats are getting more specific about how they want Washington to govern artificial intelligence, with a pair of new proposals today adding to a growing body of ideas that could shape the debate in the next Congress.

Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington, the top Democrat on the Senate Commerce Committee, released a six-part framework calling for enforceable federal safety standards for the most advanced AI systems, continuous testing and independent audits, incident reporting and greater accountability for developers. Separately, Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) unveiled a discussion draft that would create a federal cause of action allowing people harmed by AI agents to hold developers liable in certain cases.

The proposals approach the technology from different directions but reflect what Nicholas Garcia, senior policy counsel at technology advocacy group Public Knowledge, described to me in an interview this afternoon as a meaningful shift in the congressional conversation.

“We are seeing that in the recent months, congressional Democrats are absolutely taking the questions of frontier AI safety and catastrophic risk much more seriously than was the case, let’s say, a year ago,” Garcia said, pointing to “increasing specificity and focus” on how the federal government could oversee those risks.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 28 days.

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson will meet tonight for the first of four Maine Senate debates, giving Jackson his first head-to-head opportunity to prosecute his case against the five-term incumbent with four weeks until Election Day. The 7 p.m. showdown comes as Democrats look to Maine as one of the seats they need to flip to win the Senate majority. Expect abortion, health care, tariffs, the Iran war and President Donald Trump—along with Collins’s argument that her seniority delivers for Maine—to feature prominently.

The debate action started earlier today in Michigan’s 7th District, where Democratic challenger Will Lawrence and Republican Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) sparred over Barrett’s congressional record and Lawrence’s past comments during their first face-to-face meeting. Barrett repeatedly pressed Lawrence over old social-media posts supporting defunding or abolishing police; Lawrence said his views had changed and pivoted to Barrett’s votes on tariffs and other Trump administration policies. The two also drew distinctions over AI and data centers, an unusually prominent issue in the swing district: Lawrence favors a federal moratorium on new developments, while Barrett says siting decisions should remain local.

And there’s plenty more where that came from. Michigan gubernatorial nominees Jocelyn Benson and John James debate tonight before Senate nominees Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers meet Thursday. Georgia gubernatorial nominees Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson face off tonight in what could be their only debate, while Iowa gubernatorial nominees Rob Sand and Zach Lahn also meet tonight and Senate nominees Josh Turek and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) debate tomorrow.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

A second federal whistleblower has come forward to Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) with allegations that Trump administration officials ordered government employees to pursue politically sensitive investigations despite warnings from inside the government that their instructions were unlawful or unconstitutional.

The latest disclosure, announced by Padilla on Tuesday, alleges President Trump wanted the FBI to investigate and arrest protesters in Southern California after watching video of residents warning their neighbors about the presence of immigration agents and advising them of their legal rights.

According to the disclosure, FBI personnel determined the protesters in Alhambra, California, had not impeded an arrest or posed a threat. But the whistleblower alleges the White House nevertheless instructed FBI Director Kash Patel to have the bureau’s Los Angeles Field Office pursue an investigation.

“The President wants this investigation,” FBI personnel were allegedly told, according to the disclosure, and “the directive had to be followed.”

The whistleblower, a former supervisory intelligence analyst in the Los Angeles field office, also alleges that then-Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove separately directed personnel to investigate anti-ICE and Customs and Border Protection protesters demonstrating at federal buildings without evidence of criminal activity or a national-security threat.

The account alleges FBI leadership proceeded despite acknowledging constitutional concerns and that it removed the whistleblower from a supervisory position after objecting. The whistleblower ultimately resigned before they could be fired, according to the disclosure.

Padilla, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary immigration subcommittee, is demanding Attorney General Todd Blanche and Patel provide answers by Oct. 12 about the investigations, including how many protesters the FBI and Justice Department have investigated since Trump returned to office and how many investigations were based solely on First Amendment activity.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 29 days.

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert died over the weekend at 84. The Illinois Republican, who served as speaker from 1999 to 2007, was sentenced to 15 months in federal prison in 2016 for illegally structuring bank withdrawals used for hush-money payments that concealed his sexual abuse of teenage boys while he was a high school wrestling coach. Read more from AP News »

In campaign news, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) will campaign with Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in New Hampshire tomorrow, starting with a meet-and-greet in Nashua before helping open a new Organize New Hampshire office in Keene alongside state Democratic leaders. The swing comes after Warnock told me last week that he was fielding “a lot of requests” to campaign around Georgia and across the country during the final month before the midterms.

“I can’t be everywhere. I still pastor my church. I got two little kids,” Warnock said. But he added that he planned to spend October “moving around the state and all over the country” because of what he described as the election’s unusually high stakes. Warnock said Democrats need congressional majorities capable of putting “guardrails” on President Donald Trump and argued Republicans have shown little interest in doing so.

Warnock warned the danger wouldn’t necessarily pass with a Democratic victory: Trump, he said, could emerge from November “like a wounded lion who has lost his roar and his bite—and that can be a very dangerous time.”

VIEW FROM THE HILL

Black voters are poised to play their familiar consequential role in next month’s midterms. But new data suggests Democratic leaders shouldn’t mistake participation for satisfaction.

Black Futures Lab this afternoon invited reporters to an early look at more than 6,000 responses to its 2026 Black Census Project, an ongoing national survey that remains in the field and ultimately aims to collect hundreds of thousands of responses.

The preliminary findings reveal extraordinarily low trust in political institutions alongside practical economic priorities and growing political independence—warning signs for a party that has long relied on Black voters as a foundational constituency.

The findings also track with what a Congressional Black Caucus member and Democratic strategist told me about the party’s relationship with Black voters in the final month before the midterms.

“Black voters are not monolithic and while many are speaking about working class issues, they are not uplifting a Black agenda,” the CBC member said. “In fact, no one is even talking to Black voters while on the trail. We are not in the polling and not in the conversations.”

The member, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess the party, added that recognizing Black voters does not require candidates to “say ‘Black, Black, Black’ all the time,” but argued the party should acknowledge “the base of voters that have given this party foundation.”

“So maybe Black voters are not as vocal as we have been in the past,” the member said. “It does not mean we are not aware or that we are not keeping receipts.”

The strategist, who was also granted anonymity, offered a similar warning: Opposition to President Donald Trump may motivate Black voters next month, but Democrats “should not conflate that with enthusiasm for their agenda.”

The strategist argued Democrats have yet to articulate a sufficiently specific agenda for Black Americans and need to offer something “real, economical, and tangible,” citing a broader economic agenda and a reparations commission as examples. Symbolic representation still matters, the strategist said, but Democrats cannot assume it alone will sustain Black support.

That tension was central to Black Futures Lab’s presentation.

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FIRST THINGS FIRST

👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Sunday. I hope your weekend was everything for you. The midterm election is in 30 days.

A new NBC News/Telemundo poll suggests Republicans’ 2024 gains with Latino voters may have been far less durable than the party hoped. Democrats lead Republicans 59–35 among registered Latino voters on which party should control Congress, twice their advantage at the same point in 2024. President Donald Trump’s approval stands at just 27%, while 69% disapprove. Even among Latinos who voted for Trump two years ago, 14% now prefer Democratic control of Congress and another 8% are undecided.

Affordability is driving much of the movement. Nearly two-thirds of Latino voters say their family income is falling behind the cost of living, while 78% disapprove of Trump’s handling of prices and 74% disapprove of his handling of the economy. Democrats now hold a 21-point advantage over Republicans on which party voters trust more on the economy after Trump held a four-point edge over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

But there’s an important warning sign for Democrats: Their own image hasn’t improved. Forty-two percent view the party negatively, four points worse than in 2024, suggesting the current Democratic advantage reflects erosion in support for Trump and Republicans more than a renewed attachment to the party.

LOOKING AHEAD

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) predicted Republicans will grow “more and more desperate” over the final month of the midterms as President Trump pairs direct government payments with a promise of $5,000 checks if the GOP keeps Congress.

“Given the graveyard of broken promises that Donald Trump and House Republicans have visited upon the American people over the last 20 or so months, these last-minute desperation pledges are falling on deaf ears,” Jeffries told me this afternoon on a press call Sunday marking 30 days until Election Day. “There’s no indication that it’s moving the needle at all.”

The Democratic leader pointed to Trump’s promises to lower the cost of living, protect Medicaid and keep the United States out of new wars—commitments that have collided with the governing record Republicans will take into November.

Trump promised Americans lower prices after returning to office, but affordability remains a political vulnerability heading into the midterms. His signature 2025 reconciliation law also made sweeping changes to Medicaid after Trump pledged not to cut the program. And the president who campaigned against new wars launched a U.S. war against Iran this year, later disputing that he had ever guaranteed there would be no war.

Now Trump is making a different kind of promise, one voters can see in their bank accounts before they cast their ballots.

The president announced Friday that more than 20 million Medicare Part B enrollees will receive one-time $90 payments beginning this month, funded with roughly $2 billion from the congressionally created Medicare Improvement Fund. The payments cover less than half of the standard $202.90 monthly Part B premium.

They follow $500 checks the administration is sending to nearly one million unsubsidized Affordable Care Act marketplace enrollees. And on the campaign trail this weekend, Trump reiterated his pledge to send every U.S. adult $5,000 if voters keep Republicans in control of the House and Senate—a promise the White House reinforced with a straight-to-camera video from the president.

The emerging strategy puts something tangible behind an affordability message that has struggled to break through as voters remain frustrated with the economy. It also raises a potentially consequential question for Democrats with four weeks remaining: whether actual checks arriving before Election Day—combined with the promise of a much larger one afterward—could motivate older and lower-propensity voters Republicans need to turn out.

I asked Jeffries whether he was concerned about precisely that possibility and whether Democrats needed something equally tangible to compete.

“No one is buying Donald Trump’s promise to hand out taxpayer dollars to everyday Americans,” Jeffries said, arguing that Trump has repeatedly made similar promises without delivering.

Then he offered his prediction for the closing stretch.

“Over the next few weeks, we’ll see Republicans become more and more desperate,” Jeffries said. “But the American people have clearly concluded that they’ve had enough.”

Meanwhile, Jeffries also offered a little more detail on what Democrats would do if they win the House.

He said the caucus’s five affordability working groups—focused on housing, health care, groceries and goods, gas and utilities, and caregiving—are working with prospective committee chairs on recommendations for the first 100 days and first year of a Democratic majority. The specific bills and sequencing still have not been decided, but Jeffries said Democrats would also move to end the war in Iran and stop Trump’s tariffs.

On the campaign itself, Jeffries said Democrats believe strong frontline incumbents are allowing the party to push deeper into districts Trump carried in 2024. He pointed to South Texas, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Virginia and Iowa among the places where Democrats see opportunities, and said he expects to spend the final month campaigning across New York and New Jersey, the Midwest and potentially Florida and Texas. Jeffries also said former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Harris will remain part of what he called an “all hands on deck” push through Election Day.

Trump builds out his “super intelligence” push: President Trump announced the creation of a new “Super Intelligence Force” to coordinate the federal government’s work on advanced artificial intelligence and maintain U.S. leadership in the technology, less than a week after the White House unveiled an accord on super intelligence signed by major tech companies.

The new group is also charged with protecting Americans’ interests and improving their lives while consulting consumers, public-interest and religious groups, critical-infrastructure providers and AI companies. Its leadership will include Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, Federal Trade Commission Chair Andrew Ferguson, Pentagon technology chief Emil Michael and Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor.

The announcement adds some bureaucratic structure to an initiative that was still largely aspirational when Trump and industry leaders signed the accord Monday. But the administration has yet to spell out the force’s formal authorities, how it will interact with existing agencies or what concrete policy actions will flow from its mandate.

El-Sayed bets on persuasion to overcome the money gap: One month out from Election Day, Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign has positioned the Michigan Senate race as a test of whether its grassroots operation can withstand a major Republican spending advantage. Campaign manager Alia Kapasi says pro-Mike Rogers groups are outspending El-Sayed allies roughly 2-to-1, with Trump- and Elon Musk-aligned super PACs pouring tens of millions more into the race.

Rather than relying only on Democratic turnout, El-Sayed is increasingly targeting 2024 Trump voters frustrated with prices, the Iran war and what the campaign describes as the administration’s failure to deliver on an “America First” agenda. The final-month plan includes a statewide bus tour, events with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) , and a continued focus on health care, affordability and corruption. The campaign says more than 21,000 volunteers are now involved and acknowledges the financial imbalance could still produce a razor-thin finish.

The jobs slowdown is landing unevenly: Friday’s September jobs report showed the economy added just 29,000 jobs last month, far below expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. But the sharper warning sign was underneath the headline number: Black unemployment jumped a full percentage point, from 6% to 7%, even as the overall rate barely moved. Black women saw an especially steep increase, from 5.6% to 6.8%, while the Black-white unemployment gap widened to nearly two-to-one.

That doesn’t mean Black workers suddenly lost jobs en masse. Black employment actually rose modestly in September, while labor-force participation climbed from 61.6% to 62.5%, meaning more Black Americans entered the labor market than employers absorbed. Still, the disparity is worth watching because Black workers have historically been among the first to feel a weakening labor market.

With hiring now averaging just 45,000 jobs a month over the past year and affordability already dominating the closing stretch of the midterms, Friday’s report gives Democrats another data point for their argument that economic strain is reaching well beyond the topline unemployment rate—and raises the stakes for whether the slowdown deepens before voters head to the polls.

🔓 The Sunday edition is free. But if you want Once Upon a Hill in your inbox each evening, upgrade your subscription for full access to every edition and the complete archive. Whether you’re taking the votes, writing the bills, running the campaigns, shaping the message or trying to influence any of the above, Congress Nerd Daily helps you see around corners before everyone else catches up.

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IN THE KNOW

— Iranian parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Sunday that Tehran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Washington satisfies seven conditions contained in the June Islamabad memorandum. The statement comes after Iran reviewed the U.S. response delivered through Qatari intermediaries last week. Read more from Reuters »

— U.S. intelligence agencies are tracking efforts by Russia and other foreign adversaries to influence the midterms, with Russia assessed as the most active actor and focused largely on digital disinformation designed to deepen divisions and undermine confidence in the results. State election officials say the administration’s cuts to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, reduced information-sharing and delayed election-security planning have left them with less federal support than in recent election cycles, even as generative AI makes influence operations cheaper and more convincing. CISA released its election-infrastructure plan only last month. Read more in The Washington Post »

— With the Supreme Court of the United States beginning its new term Monday, three business cases getting fresh attention this weekend cut directly across your policy lanes. In Suncor v. Boulder, the justices will consider whether state and local climate-damages suits against fossil-fuel companies are displaced by federal law. The answer could determine whether a growing wave of local climate litigation survives. Apple v. Epic Games puts the App Store back before the Court, this time over whether Apple violated an injunction requiring greater freedom for developers to steer users toward outside payment systems. Anderson v. Intel concerns the pleading standard for workers challenging allegedly imprudent 401(k) investments, with implications for employers considering private equity and other alternative assets in retirement plans. Read more at Barron’s »

📬 The best stories often start with a conversation. If you’ve got insight, context or something others are missing, my inbox is open. Send me tips, scoops or just say hi: michael@onceuponahill.com.

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“How ketamine, kratom and other drugs are changing Cornell and other schools” by Susan Svrluga: “Recreational use of dangerous substances has led to calls for widely available overdose-reversal medication and drug-testing strips.”

”Rural data centers are in for a big federal tax break” by Molly Taft: “Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, data center projects in rural areas could be eligible for major tax benefits starting next year. Some hyperscalers do not seem eager to take the free cash.”

“The layoff announcements keep coming, but no one knows who, where or when” by Chip Cutter and Ray A. Smith: “From Nike to Meta, companies are telegraphing broad cuts in advance, leaving workers in limbo over the details.”

👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 33 days.

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) will head to Mississippi on Friday to campaign with Democratic Senate nominee Scott Colom as Democrats continue to focus on a race that was barely on the party’s map earlier this cycle.

Booker will join Colom in Gulfport to launch “Canvass with Colom,” a statewide voter-mobilization push beginning three days before Mississippi’s Oct. 5 registration deadline. He’ll be the third sitting Democratic senator to campaign with Colom this cycle, following Sens. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) in August and Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) last month. Booker previously campaigned in Mississippi for Mike Espy during his 2018 challenge to Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.).

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will also be on the Senate campaign trail Friday, joining Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in Manchester and Hooksett before a Rochester rally with Pappas and other Democratic nominees. Pappas is running for the open seat of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) against former Republican Sen. John Sununu.

The dueling campaign swings offer an early look at how national Democrats are spending their time beyond the marquee battleground races with just over a month until Election Day: defending a New Hampshire seat already in Democratic hands while putting some attention into considerably redder territory in Mississippi.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

The Senate left Washington this week without senators or their House counterparts taking meaningful action to regulate the most powerful artificial intelligence systems, despite increasingly urgent warnings from industry leaders and lawmakers that the technology is advancing faster than the government can keep it safe.

Now lawmakers won’t return until Nov. 9. In their absence, the White House has offered its own answer: Let the companies police themselves.

President Donald Trump and executives from the country’s leading AI companies signed a voluntary accord on Tuesday committing developers to stronger internal controls, independent outside evaluations and board-level oversight of their most advanced systems. The agreement includes no federal enforcement mechanism or penalties for companies that fail to comply.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told me Wednesday that isn’t good enough.

“The notion of entering into a voluntary agreement that is entirely unenforceable and that allows the industry writ large to police itself is not the right response at this moment,” Jeffries said, “given the potentially grave harm and danger that industry leaders themselves are now flagging for the American people.”

His criticism followed weeks of warnings from Democrats that Congress should act before lawmakers left town for the campaign trail.

On Monday, Jeffries criticized Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Republicans for canceling the final two scheduled weeks of September votes rather than responding to concerns about advanced AI systems escaping controlled environments.

“It certainly seems to me that we need to actually lean in boldly and responsibly now,” Jeffries said on CNBC.

Then came Tuesday’s White House summit, where Trump met with executives including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI cofounder Greg Brockman.

Trump praised what he called “tremendous self-policing” by the industry. The resulting White House Accord on Super Intelligence creates layers of private oversight: companies establish internal controls, separate teams audit those controls, outside auditors review compliance and independent board committees provide another layer of scrutiny.

But none of it carries the force of federal law.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 34 days.

FIRST THINGS FIRST: It’s the final day of the fiscal year, and for once I’m not writing to you about a government shutdown showdown. Instead, the Senate is trying to clear the decks before lawmakers leave Washington for the October recess, though attendance could complicate Republican leaders’ plans.

GOP leadership is trying to line up the votes on several expiring Congressional Review Act resolutions that Republicans want to pass before senators leave town. Leaders are also seeking a time agreement with Democrats to speed up a final confirmation vote on Keith Sonderling to be Labor secretary after the Senate advanced his nomination 53–47 along party lines this afternoon. The catch is whether Republicans can keep enough senators around to finish everything.

Meanwhile, Democrats blocked the Stop Insider Trading Act and Ratepayer Protection Act from advancing, as expected. The Stop Insider Trading Act failed 53–47 along party lines. The Ratepayer Protection Act fell short 57–43, with four Democrats—Maggie Hassan (N.H.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Jon Ossoff (Ga.) and Raphael Warnock (Ga.)—joining every Republican in support.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters this morning that “the momentum is building toward wrapping it up today,” but couldn’t say with certainty that senators would be finished. Asked whether there could be more votes after this afternoon’s originally scheduled series, he told us: “Let me get back [to you].”

VIEW FROM THE HILL

Senators struck a sweeping bipartisan deal this afternoon to make it easier to build energy and infrastructure projects across the country, breaking through months of negotiations that at times looked destined to become Congress’s latest failed attempt at permitting reform.

The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act would overhaul federal environmental reviews, speed up project decisions, expand the nation’s electric grid, and require data centers to pay the incremental transmission costs needed to serve their enormous demand for power.

The agreement is the product of an unusual four-way negotiation between Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Ranking Member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), along with Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Ranking Member Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.).

And getting there required something less technical than the hundreds of pages of legislative text the four senators released earlier today: patience, trust and, in Heinrich’s case, stubbornness.

“I’m really stubborn,” Heinrich told me after the senators announced the agreement. “So we just kept going back to the table.”

That persistence stemmed from Heinrich’s experience with SunZia, a 550-mile transmission line carrying wind power across New Mexico and Arizona that took 17 years to permit and build.

Heinrich, who has worked on the project since arriving in Congress in 2009, told me he was willing to “burn a lot of time and political capital” on permitting reform because projects should reach a yes-or-no decision much faster.

“Some projects aren’t good. Some projects shouldn’t go forward,” he said. “But you should be able to get to yes or no a lot faster than we currently do.”

The bill attempts to do that by changing the National Environmental Policy Act, the Clean Water Act, the Endangered Species Act and historic-preservation reviews. It would impose deadlines on environmental reviews, limit some litigation and make permits harder to undo once issued.

The other half of the bargain tackles energy development and the grid.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 35 days.

First Things First: The Senate is expected to vote tomorrow on whether to advance two House-passed bills Republicans are casting as tests of Democrats’ willingness to address issues they have used against vulnerable GOP senators on the campaign trail.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.C.) told reporters this morning that Democrats who oppose Sen. Jon Husted’s (R-Ohio) Ratepayer Protection Act or Sen. Pete Ricketts’s Stop Insider Trading Act would make it “pretty hard” to criticize Republicans over data-center electricity costs or lawmakers profiting from information they learn in office.

“They’re raising those issues because they want to distract from their positions,” Thune said, accusing Democrats of trying to “politicize everything going into the election.”

Neither bill is guaranteed the 60 votes needed to advance. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told reporters yesterday that the ratepayer bill falls short because it requires utilities to consider standards ensuring large energy users cover the infrastructure costs they create rather than requiring them to do so.

“We’re lawmakers, not law suggesters,” Schatz said. “If we want to lower people’s costs, we should mandate it.”

Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called the Ricketts bill a “theatrical farce” because it would allow lawmakers to retain and sell existing stocks, would not cover the president and would include voter-ID provisions Democrats oppose. Both bills have already cleared the House, meaning Senate passage would send them directly to President Donald Trump.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

Senate Democrats plan to demand new restrictions on the Trump administration’s ability to cancel congressionally approved spending as part of any government funding legislation later this year, raising the prospect of another sticking point in the next round of negotiations.

Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, told reporters this afternoon that Democrats have repeatedly sought language addressing the administration’s use of rescissions during previous spending negotiations but were rebuffed.

“I have been saying throughout all of our appropriations process, throughout all the CR negotiations, we have to have language in there about rescissions,” Murray said. “I have been told no time and time again, and that will be our demand when we come back on any bill we pass later on this year.”

Her comments come as appropriators are preparing for another round of negotiations to fund the government beyond December—and as senators in both parties consider how Congress can protect spending agreements from being undone after they become law.

Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told reporters Monday that lawmakers are “already looking at whether there’s language we can put in the next set of appropriations bills that would prohibit” pocket rescissions.

That could put Collins and Murray closer together on the need for new safeguards, even as Democrats argue Republicans rejected similar protections during previous negotiations.

Several Democratic appropriators I spoke with on Monday said the administration’s unwillingness to spend money Congress has approved is already complicating the next funding fight.

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👋🏾 HI, HEY, HELLO! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Daily. I hope today was everything for you. The midterms are in 36 days.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) joined the bipartisan criticism of the Trump administration’s taxpayer-funded advertising campaign this afternoon, telling reporters he likes the president’s message but not who is footing the bill.

“I don’t think he’s said exactly where the money’s coming from,” Thune said. “It’s a great message. I like the message, but it shouldn’t be paid for with taxpayer dollars.”

The comments come after the administration aired a new ad during NFL games and Sunday programming over the weekend that closely mirrors a Trump 2024 campaign spot and ends with the disclosure: “Paid for by the U.S. Government.” The White House has defended the ads as public service announcements while lawmakers in both parties have questioned whether public funds should be used to promote the president.

VIEW FROM THE HILL

The Senate is poised to pass the Protect College Sports Act tonight with the kind of bipartisan margin that would ordinarily give a bill considerable momentum across the Capitol.

But at least four Senate Democrats who have resisted the legislation are warning their House colleagues not to mistake a lopsided Senate vote for a settled debate over the future of college sports.

Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.), Chris Van Hollen (Md.), Ron Wyden (Ore.) and Tammy Baldwin (Wis.) told me that House Democrats should use the additional time before the legislation is expected to receive consideration to demand stronger protections for college athletes and rebalance a bill they argue gives too much power to the institutions that govern college sports.

The message comes ahead of a final Senate vote this evening after each of the bill’s previous procedural hurdles cleared with at least 70 votes. But the legislation faces a more complicated path in the House, where members in both parties have raised concerns and lawmakers are not expected to consider it until the lame-duck session at the earliest.

The vote also comes as senators face pressure to show voters they are focused on a more immediate concern: the cost of living. Recent polling has consistently found affordability at or near the top of voters’ priorities heading into the midterms. Senate Republicans reinforced that urgency themselves last week when several members pushed leadership to bring the chamber back this week rather than leave Washington to campaign, in part to give them another opportunity to vote on legislation aimed at lowering household costs.

That creates an unusual split screen for the Senate’s final stretch before the election. The PCSA is a priority for Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and the college-sports institutions that have spent years pressing Congress for a national framework. But senators are simultaneously racing to demonstrate that they are responding to voters whose concerns are much closer to the kitchen table.

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👋🏾 Hi, hey, hello! Welcome back to Congress Nerd Sunday. I hope your weekend was everything for you. The midterm election is in 37 days.

Texas’s Senate race got some outside commentary this morning when retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) called President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican Ken Paxton a “mistake,” arguing on CNN’s State of the Union that former Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas would not have forced Republicans to spend “tens or hundreds of millions of dollars” defending the seat.

Meanwhile, Democratic nominee James Talarico spent part of Saturday at Dallas’s State Fair Classic, the annual HBCU rivalry between Prairie View A&M and Grambling State that draws thousands of Black fans to the Cotton Bowl. The appearance is notable given the attention Talarico’s standing with Black voters has received since he overwhelmingly lost the bloc to Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) in the Democratic primary, even as more recent polling shows Black voters consolidating behind him for the general election.

LOOKING AHEAD

Congress will confront a question this week that the artificial intelligence industry is increasingly struggling to answer on its own: What happens when the safeguards designed to control powerful AI agents fail?

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Disaster Management, District of Columbia, and Census will hold a hearing Wednesday afternoon on “Rogue AI: Securing the Homeland Against AI Agent Attacks,” bringing an increasingly urgent debate over autonomous AI systems to Capitol Hill.

The hearing comes less than two weeks after an OpenAI research agent escaped the network restrictions of what was supposed to be an isolated training environment.

The agent discovered on Sept. 20 that it could exploit a gap in OpenAI’s DNS filtering to communicate with an outside chatbot. OpenAI’s monitoring system flagged the behavior within 15 minutes and a human reviewer acknowledged the alert three minutes later. But the run continued for another two and a half hours before it was manually stopped.

OpenAI has since paused training, evaluation and tool-using inference involving its most capable models while it validates new controls and conducts additional red-teaming. The company said the agent did not copy itself onto the internet and described the episode as less severe than previous incidents.

But the failure exposed an uncomfortable reality: sophisticated safeguards can contain gaps that sufficiently capable agents can find as companies race to develop AI capable of completing increasingly complicated tasks with less human supervision.

OpenAI acknowledged as much in its own account.

“Our safety case assumed that the model could not access the live internet,” the company wrote, adding that the incident exposed shortcomings not only in its network restrictions but in the human response after the system detected the breach.

The incident follows a July episode in which OpenAI agents breached external systems during cybersecurity testing and comes amid separate disclosures involving research agents posting images uploaded by ChatGPT users to outside image-hosting services.

The accumulating episodes are giving Washington real-world failures against which lawmakers can test the industry’s assurances that voluntary safeguards can keep powerful systems under control, something it has largely lacked during years of debate over the dangers of increasingly autonomous AI.

House Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), one of Congress’s most outspoken voices on AI, argued this morning that another round of safeguards isn’t enough.

“Pausing and adding more ‘safeguards’ won’t solve your problem,” Lieu wrote in a post directed at OpenAI. “You need to destroy your model and start over.”

Bill Gates is approaching the problem from a different direction but reaching a similar conclusion about self-policing.

“No one thinks self-regulation is enough,” Gates told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in an interview that aired this morning, arguing that politicians and law enforcement should decide what safeguards and monitoring companies must implement.

Since OpenAI has now documented that advanced AI agents can behave in unexpected ways, the question awaiting senators on Wednesday is whether Washington should begin setting enforceable rules for how companies test, contain and monitor those systems—and what companies must do when those protections fail.

The politics are beginning to move there too.

Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) used a speech to Pennsylvania Democrats this weekend to frame AI as part of a broader populist argument against President Trump and Vice President JD Vance, accusing the administration of letting wealthy technology interests shape federal policy.

“They’re threatening millions of jobs with automation,” Casar said. “They’re threatening our freedoms with mass surveillance. And they’re threatening our safety with AI too powerful to control.”

Those economic, privacy and safety concerns have often traveled along separate tracks on Capitol Hill. Increasingly autonomous agents could force Congress to consider them together.

And after a research agent found its own way through a barrier designed to keep it off the internet, Wednesday’s hearing begins with a considerably less theoretical question than Congress faced even a few months ago: Who sets the rules for controlling AI when the AI companies’ own rules aren’t enough?

The answers may not come until after the election.

What else I’m watching: Senators return tomorrow evening for a final vote on the Protect College Sports Act, the bipartisan overhaul of college athletics that cleared its final procedural hurdle 74–25 last week.

After that, Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) could pivot the floor toward affordability, with the Ratepayer Protection Act “front and center” among the options for the Senate’s newly added final week before the midterms. The House-passed bill, championed by vulnerable Ohio Republican Jon Husted, would require state utility regulators to consider standards to prevent data centers from shifting the costs of new power infrastructure onto consumers. Thune placed it on the Senate calendar last Thursday after Democrats blocked Husted’s earlier attempt to pass it by unanimous consent.

Meanwhile, former Special Counsel Jack Smith returns to Capitol Hill on Tuesday morning to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee at a GOP-led oversight hearing on what the committee calls his “abuse of authority” and targeting of Republicans. Later Tuesday, the Judiciary intellectual property panel will question Patent Office Director John Squires amid scrutiny of recent policy reversals at the agency, while Armed Services’ Strategic Forces panel gets an update on President Trump’s Golden Dome missile-defense initiative.

The Helsinki Commission kicks off the week Monday with a briefing on protecting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure from Russian attacks heading into winter, including lessons for defending critical infrastructure at home. And Senate Foreign Relations members will receive a classified update Thursday on Venezuela from senior State Department officials.

🔓 The Sunday edition is free. But if you want Once Upon a Hill in your inbox each evening, upgrade your subscription for full access to every edition and the complete archive. Whether you’re taking the votes, writing the bills, running the campaigns, shaping the message or trying to influence any of the above, Congress Nerd Daily helps you see around corners before everyone else catches up.

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IN THE KNOW

— Free Press picks El-Sayed: The Detroit Free Press endorsed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s open Senate race, giving El-Sayed the backing of the state’s largest newspaper as the nationally watched contest enters its final stretch. The endorsement also puts Detroit’s two major papers on opposite sides of the race: The Detroit News endorsed Rogers earlier this month, citing the former House Intelligence chair’s experience while sharply questioning El-Sayed’s record and views. Read more »

—Trump rejects Iran’s Hormuz offer: President Trump publicly rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks within seven days, confirming earlier reports of his private opposition. Iran offered to reopen the waterway if Washington lifted its naval blockade, eased oil sanctions and observed a broader ceasefire. Trump argued Tehran is seeking a deal because U.S. pressure is damaging its economy. Read more »

— Trump tests another pocket rescission: The White House moved to withhold nearly $1 billion in unobligated spending just five days before the fiscal year ends, including $567 million for HHS programs serving refugees, asylees and other noncitizens. The administration argues the money can remain frozen during Congress’s 45-day review period and expire Sept. 30; GAO considers such “pocket rescissions” illegal, and Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins called the move an illegal “usurpation of Congress’s appropriations powers.” Read more »

— Trump, Xi agree to targeted tariff relief: Beijing says President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed during this week’s state visit to recommend preferential tariff treatment for $30 billion in nonsensitive goods in each direction, establish an AI “communication channel” by November and extend their broader trade truce through Jan. 10. The tariff agreement still requires implementation and falls well short of a comprehensive trade deal, with major disputes over advanced chips, Taiwan and other national-security restrictions unresolved. Read more »

— U.S. intel flags Saudi nuclear ambitions: American intelligence agencies assess that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons, The Washington Post reports—even as the Trump administration helps Riyadh develop a civilian nuclear-energy program. The assessment does not conclude the kingdom has decided to build a bomb but reportedly says it wants to preserve the option, intensifying questions over uranium enrichment and nonproliferation safeguards in any U.S.-Saudi nuclear agreement. Read more »

— SCOTUS revives voter citizenship checks: The Supreme Court allowed states to resume using DHS’s expanded SAVE system, which taps Social Security records to verify voters’ citizenship, while litigation continues. But the ruling is narrower than a green light for a nationwide voter-roll purge: The Court emphasized individualized checks, while federal law generally bars systematic removals within 90 days of a federal election. Participation is also voluntary. Read more »

— Texas prisons ordered to install AC: A federal judge ordered Texas to install air conditioning throughout its prison system by the end of 2029, finding that exposing incarcerated people to extreme heat violates the Eighth Amendment. The sweeping ruling requires the state to develop a systemwide implementation plan rather than limit relief to vulnerable prisoners or individual facilities as increasingly dangerous summer heat puts prison conditions under greater scrutiny. Read more »

— Workforce Pell expands to North Carolina: The Education Department approved six programs at Forsyth Technical Community College for the new Workforce Pell Grant, making North Carolina the fifth state with federally approved programs. The program, which took effect July 1, extends Pell aid to qualifying 8-to-15-week workforce credentials—including training for firefighters, lineworkers, welders and paramedics—that meet federal earnings and employer-demand requirements. Read more »

— California counters Trump’s trans military ban: Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a six-bill LGBTQ+ protections package that provides housing, employment and civilian-transition assistance to service members discharged under the administration’s ban on transgender military service. The measures also restrict disclosure of sexual-orientation and gender-identity data and strengthen protections for providers subpoenaed over legally protected care, extending California’s broader effort to insulate residents from federal policy. Read more »

— Hawaii’s hurricane threat eases: Hurricane Nolo weakened slightly on Saturday and shifted west, with its center now expected to remain well south of Hawaii and reducing the risk of the severe impacts officials had prepared for under a federal emergency declaration. The islands aren’t in the clear, though: damaging winds, heavy rain, flooding and dangerous surf remain possible through the weekend. Read more »

📬 The best stories often start with a conversation. If you’ve got insight, context or something others are missing, my inbox is open. Send me tips, scoops or just say hi: michael@onceuponahill.com.

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“Old-school credit card scams are far from dead” by Lily Hay Newman and Matt Burgess: “In an era of increasingly sophisticated AI-fueled scams, a retro threat may be lurking in your mailbox.”

“She helped lead a far-right internet movement. Then it turned on her.” by Drew Harwell: “Inspired by female conservative influencers, Amy Dangerfield worked to become one of Nick Fuentes’s model ‘groypettes.’ A vicious fight left her grappling with the dark side of far-right fame.”

“Why are so many adults cutting off their parents?” by Elizabeth Bernstein: “Family estrangement is on the rise, driven by shifting family norms and changing therapy practices. ‘We’re at a cultural tipping point.’”